South OC's 3-year in review

Since the OC Register recently posted DataQuick's sales data for the calendar year 2009, we figured we'd take it a bit further and compare 2009 to 2008 and 2007 - that way, you'll get a better idea of how things have changed since way back when.

The table is below:

The median sales price in every South OC ZIP decreased between 2007 and 2009. The biggest losers in terms of largest decline were:

• San Juan: -57.33%
• Dana Point (92624): -47.26%
• Foothill Ranch: -39.69%
• Lake Forest: -33.64%
• RSM: -31.90%

Dana Point and San Juan also were the largest losses, dollar wise. The smallest percentage declines were:

• Laguna Woods: -19.64%
• Aliso Viejo: -22.94%
• Dana Point (92629): -24.24%
• Laguna Beach: -24.84%
• Trabuco/Coto: -25.57%

When you compare sales volumes of 2007 and 2009, you'll find that in most ZIPs the number of sales increased from 2007-2008, and again between 2008 and 2009. The ZIPs with the largest positive gains in sales volumes between 2007 and 2009 were:

• San Clemente (92672): +378
• Lake Forest: +208
• Laguna Niguel: +110

Some ZIP codes even saw a decline in sales between 2007 and 2009. Here are the worst performers:

• Laguna Woods: -94
• Ladera Ranch: -81
• San Clemente (92673): -66
  

South OC home stats: Party on?

The OC Register reported some fairly rosy housing data over the weekend. In short, OC median home price was up for the 22 business days ending Nov. 12, the median price bumped up a bit while sales continued to be up year-over-year.

Comparisons to last fall are difficult. Remember what was going on last year? Financial meltdown ring a bell? Still, there is an undeniable feeling that many expect the market has already been on the mend last year. Here are the numbers ... you decide what you think!

October Home Stats

Here's a look at the latest DataQuick stats for the month of October, published recently by the OC Register.

South OC home stats, September

We realized the last time we updated DataQuick's monthly stats was July, so here we go with September, courtesy of the OC Register:



As you can see, as an area, South OC prices are down slightly compared to last year, while the amount of sales is up slightly more than the county as a whole.

Redfin: Head south for home discounts

Redfin recently posted the above chart on its Orange County Sweet Digs blog as part of a roundup of where the biggest price discounts were for the month of August.

As you can see, South County is very well represented, as 7 of our areas were well above the county median of 4.6 percent. And, five of the top 7 areas in the county, as well as 7 of the top 10 most discounted areas were South County cities.

What does this tell us? It means there might be some denial working in our area, so sellers are listing higher than they can get and are later forced to reduce the price. You also need to think about some of the areas on this list - Laguna Beach, San Clemente, Coto, Dana Point - all are areas with a lot of expensive houses. It's probably also an indicator that the housing pain experienced inland has brought those prices just about as low as they are going to fall, and now it's the high-end pricing that is coming down.

July home prices

The OC Register posted DataQuick's home stats for the month of July. Here we go:



Based on this report, sales are still up a bit year-over-year while prices are down. We're seeing some increased activities in some of the more expensive ZIPs (Laguna Beach, Trabuco/Coto), though we wonder if they are on the relatively cheaper properties found there since we know top-of-the-market homes are not moving very quickly.

South OC home stats thru June 4

It's been a little while since we've posted the latest DataQuick stats via the OC Register, so here we go. The numbers are for the 22 business days ending June 4.

South OC March home stats

It'd been a little while since we posted median home stats from DataQuick, but since the numbers were out today at the OC Register Web site, we thought we'd give it a stab:



As an area, South OC year-over-year prices are down almost a third, and sales volume is up about a quarter from 2008.

January home stats

The OC Register has posted January stats from DataQuick. Overall, the OC single family median is 43% below the peak, and the condo median is 44% off the peak. Sales are up again year over year, but the majority of the activity is still at the lower price points.

South OC home stats

The Register has published DataQuick's "freshest" home stats, covering the 22 business days ending Jan. 23. Here we go!



Usual caveat - don't read too much in the week-to-week fluctuations. For instance, the "average" house in Laguna Beach is not $750,000.

We can say is this: Medians are falling as cheaper homes and condos make up the majority of sales. There is a lot of activity at the lower price points, in lower-priced areas.

Year-end DQ stats

Today we have 2008 figures from DataQuick via the LA Times. Nice to see they also break it out by price/sq ft as well as single family residence (SFR) vs. condo, so we have some more data to digest.

What do you notice? Condos were hammered a lot worse than detached homes, in terms of price declines last year. Is 2009 the year more expensive homes feel the pain as more (non subprime) loans reset?

South OC home prices, Dec. 29

It's been a couple weeks, so here's a rundown of South OC median home prices via DataQuick and the OC Register. These are for the 22 business days ending Dec. 29, 2008.

November home stats

Let the holiday week begin. Here are the DataQuick numbers for the month of November, courtesy of the Sunday OC Register.

To sum it up - sales volumes fell, signaling the typical holiday slow season, though some ZIPs are still recording solid year-over-year volume increases. These coincide with much lower prices. In fact, prices were down across the board.

As a whole, South OC has lost about 1/3 of its value from a year ago, at least in the eyes of DataQuick medians.

You'll notice something new: No South OC ZIP code recorded a median sales price of more than $1 million during the month of November. There were two at this time last year - Laguna Beach and Dana Point (92624).

Of course, this is only a moment in time. A market like Laguna Beach with many high-end properties could easily jump back up next month. We're not so sure any of the other ZIPs will be doing that for a while.

South OC home stats, Nov. 7

Here are the DataQuick numbers for the 22 business days ending Nov. 7.

South OC home stats: Oct. 27

Sales up...again. Prices...flat or falling...again. Those are the two takeaways from the latest DataQuick home stats that appear on the OC Register Web site today. The late October sales report suggests many buyers are back in the market. This is misleading.

Let's take a look at the ZIP codes with the largest gains in number of properties sold, compared to last year:

Santa Ana, 92703: +671.4%
Santa Ana, 92706: +580.0%
Santa Ana, 92704: +558.3%
Anaheim, 92805: +554.5%
Anaheim, 92806: +383.3%

The median prices there are among the lowest in the county. These areas also were the ones hardest hit by subprime loans. So, it stands to reason they will reach the bottom in terms of pricing first. They may already be there since many are well below rent parity.

Now, let's look at the ZIP codes with the largest declines in terms of properties sold:

Newport Beach, 92663: -64.3%
Newport Beach, 92661: -57.1%
Irvine, 92618: -40.0%
Villa Park, 92861: -33.3%
Tustin, 92782: -16.4%

This suggests that parts of higher-end areas are beginning to crack. Here are the complete South OC stats:

South OC home stats: Oct 21

It hasn't been too long since we posted the last home stats, but here we go. Today's in the OC Register via DataQuick cover the 21 business days ending Oct. 21.



Sales volume is obviously above year-ago levels, but remember it is still below historical averages. And this is in the face of the fastest, largest value declines the area has ever seen.

South OC home stats - NEW!

A little while back, a reader suggested we include an extra column with our (usually) weekly South OC home stats that followed the percent price decline from the peak.

When exactly was the peak? It's debatable - particularly since the median itself is not always a reliable measure of prices.

So, we decided we will consider the peak when the overall OC median was highest at the end of any month. Remember those days in the summer of 2007? High-end properties were still selling. The OC median home price (including condos, single family residences and new homes) hit $642,250 that August. The latest countywide DataQuick stats via the OC Register show the median is now $420,000. That's a decline of 35% in a little more than a year.

To review, here were the home prices for South OC back in August 2007 (our designated peak):
Aliso Viejo - $595,000
Dana Point (92624) - $1,860,000
Dana Point (92629) - $774,000
Foothill Ranch - $572,500
Ladera Ranch - $795,000
Laguna Beach - $1,448,500
Laguna Hills - $553,500
Laguna Niguel - $755,000
Laguna Woods - $295,000
Lake Forest - $587,500
Mission Viejo (92691) - $626,000
Mission Viejo (92692) - $600,000
RSM - $565,000
San Clemente (92672) - $979,000
San Clemente (92673) - $900,000
San Juan - $779,000
Trabuco/Coto - $910,000

Here are the latest DataQuick stats for the 22 business days ending Oct. 13, via the OC Register.

South OC $/sq ft survey

We're taking the 7 most recent MLS sales for each area ZIP code to find the average (median) price recent buyers are paying per square foot to own South Orange County real estate.

Remember to take these with a grain of salt since they are self-reported sales prices and don't always include incentives. There also isn't a guarantee that the square-foot measurements are fully accurate, for instance in cases of renovations or additions.



Some thoughts, in no particular order...

• We wish we had comparable price/sq ft data from the peak...but we don't. So this only is useful in terms of seeing what the most recent buyers are doing.
  
  
• Not surprisingly, the "most expensive" areas in terms of price/sq ft are: Laguna Beach, Dana Point and Laguna Niguel. Laguna Beach is in a class of its own - but then again we already knew that.
  
  
• The "least expensive" areas recently by this measure have been Laguna Woods, Lake Forest and Laguna Hills. It's probably not fair to include Laguna Woods in here since it is a senior community, but we are anyway since it is technically in South OC.
  
  
• There have been some high-priced sales in Ladera Ranch recently, but the median price/sq ft of the past 7 sales is comparably low. We consider this to be fair considering the tax base there is higher than most other parts, so the prices should be lower to compensate.
  

Foreclosures: Huge drop off

ForeclosureRadar called it, and since we get our data from that site, we obviously agree: Foreclosures are significantly down across the board. That goes for South OC, too.

The reason: "CA State Senate Bill 1137 has rendered analysis of current activity against prior foreclosure levels useless in understanding market conditions," said Sean O'Toole, founder of ForeclosureRadar. "What is important to watch now, is how quickly lenders and trustees adjust to the new law. While it is unlikely foreclosures will return to previous levels, given the new requirements; we expect SB 1137 to have no long term impact beyond delaying the foreclosure process for homeowners, and slowing the overall recovery."

Here are the September numbers for South Orange County. First, new notices of default:



Here are REOS - properties sold back to the bank at auction:

South OC sales stats, Sept. 15

This is the latest DataQuick sales report for the 22 business days ending September 15, as published in the OC Register.

Same story as usual - prices tend to be way down while sales numbers are up.