'03 luxury rollback short sale in Aliso

This is exactly what happens when the market goes nuts - huge boom, then huge bust, and we're left with an extreme short sale in Aliso Viejo that also happens to be a preforeclosure. Can they save the house?

18 Prescott, 92656
Asking price: $999,900
Previous sales price: $1,645,000
Previous sales date: 12/28/05

Beds:	5
Baths:	5
Sq. Ft.:	4,100
$/Sq. Ft.:	$244
Lot Size:	5,353 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Residential, Single Family
Style:	Two Level, Other
View:	Canyon, Hills
Year Built:	2002
Community:	Aliso Viejo
County:	Orange
MLS#:	S603092
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Active This listing is for sale and the sellers are accepting offers.
On Redfin:	2 days

From listing: Stunning Upgraded Estate offers Peaceful Views * Great Floorplan on a Cul-de-Sac Boasts 4 Bedrooms + Loft + Main Floor Office + Play/Hobby Room * Formal Living & Dining Rooms * Gourmet Kitchen w/ Island + Bar Seating, Large Morning Room, Walk-In Pantry, Butlers Pantry, Wine Cellar, & Upgrades including Granite Counters, Rich Mocha Cabinetry, & Stainless Steel Appl. * Spacious Family Room w/ Custom Brick Fireplace & Built-In Media Center * Great Backyard w/ Covered Patio & Awesome Views * Luxurious Master Suite w/ Retreat Features Slate Fireplace & Viewing Balcony + Walk-In Closet * Master Bath Features Slate Accents, Dual Vanities +Oversized Tub +Separate Shower Stall * 2 Secondary Upstairs Bdrm + Spacious Loft w/ Built-Ins (Could be converted to 5th Bdrm) * Main Flr Bedroom Suite w/ Private Bthrm * Main Flr Office w/ Private Bthrm (Could be converted to 6th Bdrm) * Exquisite Upgrades Include Rich Hardwood Flring, Upgraded Carpet, Designer Paint, Crown Molding, Shutters & Rich Designer Touches Thru-out

Whew ... that is one heck of a run-on sentence up there.

What does Redfin have to say about this situation? Here's what it says on the right side of the listing: "This home is flagged as a short sale. We're sorry, we don't tour or write offers on short sales because of the slim chance that you'll get the home."

Public records say this property sold for $992,000 in mid-2003 and then for $1.645 million in 2005 ... an increase in value of 66% in about two and a half years. Sound reasonable to you?

Now, assuming the property can sell for the current short sale price, it would mean a decline of about 40%.

Short sale in the canyon

Would you like to be stuck holding a 1-bedroom fixer in Trabuco Canyon? It could be worse ... you could be the bank stuck with the loan on this place.

20751 Trabuco Oaks Drive, 92678
Asking price: $210,000

Beds:	1
Baths:	1
Sq. Ft.:	572
$/Sq. Ft.:	$367
Lot Size:	7,699 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Residential, Single Family
Style:	One Level, Bungalow
View:	Canyon, Trees/Woods
Year Built:	1929
Community:	Trabuco Canyon
County:	Orange
MLS#:	S596082
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Active This listing is for sale and the sellers are accepting offers.
On Redfin:	58 days

From listing: This Bungalow is perfect for investors. This fixer is a perfect project for anyone who wants to rebuild in the huge piece of land. two parcels sold for one price. total sq ft 15,049 with lots of potential, must see. The small bungalow features one bedroom and one bath.

We don't know what this property previously sold for, but we do know that the outstanding loans wouldn't cover the $210,000 asking price, hence this property is a short sale.

This property came onto the market listed for $350,000 in November, then went down to $295,000 ... then $250,000 ... now to the current asking price. In all, the price has been reduced $140,000 or a whopping 40% off the original asking price just about two months ago.

Does that mean if the property continues not to sell that in March it will be down to $70,000?

Just don't get it

There are a few things about this Ladera Ranch that leave us scratching our head. But, if Redfin says a buyer has been found and the property is in the accepting backup offers stage, we'll buy it. Figuratively, not literally.

15 Lanesboro Rd, 92694
Asking price: $675,000
Previous sales price: $560,000
Previous sales date: 5/28/03

Beds:	4
Baths:	3
Sq. Ft.:	2,768
$/Sq. Ft.:	$244
Lot Size:	5,859 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Residential, Single Family
Style:	Two Level, Spanish
View:	Has View
Year Built:	2003
Community:	Ladera Ranch
County:	Orange
MLS#:	S588256
Source:	CARETS
Status:	Backup Offers Accepted
On Redfin:	53 days

From listing: This Beautiful 4 Bedroom 3 Bathroom Home Is Ideally Located At The End Of A Cul-De-Sac In The Sterling Glen Tract Of Ladera Ranch. This Floor Plan Is Very Open And Has Many Windows And Doors That Offer Natural Light And Are Accented By Plantation Shutters. The Main Floor Bedroom Is Currently Being Used As An Office, However It Could Easily Be Used As The 4th Bedroom. The Large Master Suite Has A Joining Retreat Area That Could Be Converted To A 5th Bedroom If Needed. This Home Has Extensive Stone Flooring Throughout The First Level And Carpeting Up The Stairway And Into The Bedrooms. The Lush Trees And Vines In The Backyard Offer Much Privacy And Is Ideal For Entertaining Family And Friends.

We'll try to ignore the title case in the listing description if you will. At the top of this blog entry, we mentioned that a couple things with this listing confused us. In no particular order, they are:

• Who in the name of Martha Stewart leaves a trailer parked in the driveway for your MLS photo?
• Then, why would you make said photo with trailer the first image people see of the property?
• It's generally understood that South OC real estate in general - particularly a bubble-happy pocket like Ladera Ranch - is barely clinging to 2003 pricing (at best). Why would you list your short sale property for $115,000 above the previous sales price?
• As a buyer, would you jump in to buy a short sale at all?
• Would you then agree to buy said short sale for well above the 2003 price?
  

In reality, our questions mean nothing because it appears a buyer and seller have successfully come together. Just another South OC pending sale.

Winners, now a loser in Laguna

Bad timing can kill you, even if you're dealing in luxury Laguna Beach real estate.

22191 Rico Rd, 92651
Asking price: $2,190,000
Previous sales price: $2,100,000
Previous sales date: 2/4/05

Beds:	3
Baths:	4
Sq. Ft.:	3,286
$/Sq. Ft.:	$654
Lot Size:	6,180 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Single Family Residence
Style:	Mediterranean
Stories:	3+
View:	Canyon, City Lights, Coastline, Ocean, Has View, Water
Year Built:	1989
Community:	South Laguna
County:	Orange
MLS#:	U9003417
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	68 days

From listing: This exquisite custom Mediterranean Villa is located within a tranquil setting, and is merely a stone s throw of everything Laguna has to offer, including fabulous dining and shopping, galleries, cultural events and the world famous Montage Resort. Revel in approximately 3,286 square feet of elegance with panoramic ocean, and coastline and views. From its soaring entry with sweeping staircase and tranquil fountain, this home evokes old world charm and grandeur. The home features private verandas and patios with a spa at the top level. Amenities include a wine cellar, exercise room and a study with wet bar. Vaulted ceilings and custom French doors throughout add to the charm, making it a true entertainer s delight!

Let's take a look at the sales history:

2005: $2,100,000
2002: $1,410,000
1999: $1,195,000
1996: $810,000

Let's look at the change in price between each of these sales:

2005: +$690,000
2002: +$215,000
1999: +$385,000

That's a pretty darn good track record when you consider the short amount of time between each of these sales. The current owner won't be so lucky, however. This property is listed as a short sale for the current asking price of $2,190,000 despite the fact that it's priced above the 2005 sales price.

Way short in LN

Escrow dreams really do come true - even in crazy short sale situations like this one in Laguna Niguel...
7 Pacific Crest, 92677
Asking price: $1,499,000
Previous sales price: $2,065,000
Previous sales date: 5/19/06

Beds:	4
Baths:	4
Sq. Ft.:	3,300
$/Sq. Ft.:	$454
Lot Size:	8,000 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Single Family Residence
Style:	Contemporary
Stories:	2
View:	Ocean, Treetop, Trees/Woods, Has View
Year Built:	1994
Community:	Laguna Niguel South, South of Crown Valley, West of Niguel
County:	Orange
MLS#:	S576702
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Backup Offers Accepted
On Redfin:	118 days

From listing: Highly upgraded custom home in Bear Brand Ridge. Gorgeous 24'' polished Travertine carries you throughout the first level of this designer home. Incredible attention to detail creates interest at every turn. Customized AV system wired throughout the home for almost any electronic configuration. Bathrooms finished with tumbled travertine. Spacious bonus room features hardwood floors, detailed built-ins, an arched picturesque window and connects to the massage room (4th bedroom). Sensational master suite complete with vaulted ceiling, spa-like master bath, oversized travertine shower with Hansgrohe showerheads & jet tub. Master balcony showcases ocean views. Backyard designed and maintained by Roger's Gardens. An array of backyard amenities includes a built-in Viking barbeque, 3 tranquility fountains, fire pit, covered patio with speakers and recessed lighting. Meandering path connects the front and backyard. Seller would like to sell furnishings.

The Redfin property history shows this place changing hands every year between 2001 and 2006, except for 2005. We're not sure those are actually sales, but it would make sense if we were looking at a rash of refinances - up until $2 million worth in 2006.

If that's the case, and the debt against this property is hovering somewhere around the $2 million mark today, it means the lender is going to take a $500,000 bath if and when this property makes it all the way to closing.

Slash 'n go in Ladera

Here's another example of price-cutting that has led to escrow in Ladera Ranch. Like so many others, it's priced in between the 2002 price and 2004 sales prices - call it the 2003 price?

32 Sklar Street, 92694
Asking price: $425,000
Previous sales price: $645,00
Previous sales date: 6/4/04

Beds:	3
Baths:	3
Sq. Ft.:	1,600
$/Sq. Ft.:	$266
Lot Size:	2,277 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Single Family Residence
Style:	Spanish
Stories:	2
Year Built:	2002
Community:	Ladera Ranch
County:	Orange
MLS#:	S582723
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Backup Offers Accepted
On Redfin:	68 days

From listing: This home is light and bright with granite counter tops, upgraded maple stain cabinets, wood flooring, and plantation shutters. The floor plan features inside laundry, a large linen closet, a master bedroom balcony, fireplace, attached garage, and an enclosed yard. The kitchen, dining area, and family room come together graciously and are great for entertaining. The master bedroom has two closets and the master bath has an oversized tub, separate shower, and dual sinks. The property is close to schools, recreational facilities, and shopping

This property sold for $294,000 in 2002 and almost $650,000 in 2004. We wouldn't be surprised if this property was "valued" at up to $700,000 at the peak because of the comps.

Either way, the former owners who held the property for those two magical years made out to the tune of 45.7% appreciation per year, and made off with about $350,000 in profit before sales costs and any additional money they spent on the house. Imagine if they financed all of virtually all of the purchase price...their return would have been off the charts.

Now, we expect a loss in the range of about $240,000, assuming 6% sales costs and that the property can close for the latest asking price. Talk about a property that went from boom to bust.

Short sale + rental parity in Coto?

In case you haven't already, check out our friends at the Coto Housing Blog. It's all Coto all the time...plus a bunch of good insight into that market. Today we're looking at one of those properties behind the pearly gates of Coto. Is it a good deal? It likely is given the right circumstances, as we'll show below...

25 Spoon Lane, 92679
Asking price: $400,000

Beds:	3
Baths:	3
Sq. Ft.:	1,592
$/Sq. Ft.:	$251
Lot Size:	-
Property Type:	Condominium
Style:	Other
Stories:	2
Floor:	1
Year Built:	1997
Community:	Coto De Caza
County:	Orange
MLS#:	S587795
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	15 days

From listing: Come and live in one of the most desired areas in Souther California... Coto de Casa. Very Nice and attractive home with 3 bedrooms with 2 1/2 baths. Spacious family and living areas with a great backyard with built in BBQ for the summer nights. Great home for a family! Its a MUST SEE! GO DIRECT. SHORT SALE FULLY APPROVED AT $400,000.00!!! NO WAIT ! Submit offers to ...

Previous sales price: $645,000
Previous sales date: 6/27/06

The description does go on to list a fax number and e-mail address...so what are you waiting for? We're guessing the wait comes when the bank has to sort through the offers. We like to see this kind of situation because it tells us a lot about what's going on in the field.

The bank has approved the short sale at $400,000, meaning a huge loss is pending - the lender/the current owner are going to lose a total of $245,000 before sales costs to get this deal done.

So is the $400,000 approved short sale price a good deal? We checked available rental properties, and found 35 Spoon Lane is available for rent asking $2,650 per month. That property has the same number of bedrooms and bathrooms, but is about 300 square feet bigger. So, we'll go out on a bit of a limb and assume that our subject property can be rented for $2,500 per month.

If we were to use a target Gross Rent Multiplier of 160 for an owner-occupant, that would mean the property "should" sell for $400,000. That's right, the asking price is the same as our target buy price. Of course, there are other factors to consider - the $413 monthly Coto HOA dues are high, so they likely push the monthly costs out of line with rental parity a bit.

But, it's nice to see prices continue to inch closer to rental parity in South OC.

Fate or price?

What's so special about this Mission Viejo condo? Nothing, really. It's one of many properties in the area that are headed to escrow. But its price is something to marvel at - we're looking at almost a 2000 rollback.

25865 Marguerite Pkwy #5202, 92692
Asking price: $169,000

Beds:	2
Baths:	2
Sq. Ft.:	1,040
$/Sq. Ft.:	$162
Lot Size:	-
Property Type:	Condominium
Style:	Contemporary
Stories:	1
Floor:	3
View:	Fields, Golf Course, Greenbelt, Treetop
Year Built:	1970
Community:	Mission Viejo South
County:	Orange
MLS#:	S583722
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Backup Offers Accepted
On Redfin:	45 days

Previous sales price: $140,000
Previous sales date: 9/7/00
From listing: One of the lowest price areas in Mission Viejo. This 2 bedroom, 2 bath condo is an upper unit with vaulted ceiling located in a great location of Casa Loma. There is a beautiful view off of the balcony of the trees and Mission Viejo Country Club Golf Coarse. This is a great location for shopping and freeway access, featuring a community pool and washer and dryer facilities. Affordablity and the safest city in the nation

Would be nice if they could spell "affordability" properly, but hey, nobody's perfect. We would have included a second picture, but the only other photo with the listing was a shot of the pool where someone's doing laps. Not exactly intriguing.

But who cares, anyway? It's not about the property. It's about the price. The asking price of $169,000 is just $29,000 above the sales price essentially nine years ago to the day. Factor in sales costs and other necessary repairs and upgrades, and you've got a problem - you've lived in a starter property for almost a decade and you're still in the hole with a short sale.

And, that assumes there wasn't any refinancing or HELOC money in play. Care to make that assumption? We aren't...

Short sale exam

Lots of short sales are entering the "backup offers accepted" stage. Are they actually closing?

Below are a handful of properties that fit this description. All are marked as short sales, all are taking backup offers on the (theoretical) way to closing. We've marked this post as one to follow up on in a few months. Then, we'll take a look and see what happens...


2946 Calle Grande Vis, San Clemente 92672
Last asking price: $599,900
Previous sales price: $735,000
Previous sales date: 9/29/06
Listing description snippet: Sigle level home in the Shore Cliff area. Walking distance to the beach. This is a short sale with a short fuse. THis home must be sold in the next few days. Do not miss this opportunity. Calle Grande Vista is not part of the Shore Cliff HOA. No fees!

31311 Calle Villa Clara, San Juan 92675
Last asking price: $495,000
Previous sales price: $699,000
Previous sales date: 2/2/07
Listing description snippet: This is a hot property!! Turnkey home has been completely updated and is in excellent shape! The price is unbeatable! From the moment you walk through the door you'll feel right at home and be sure to enjoy the newly remodeled kitchen which opens to your formal dining and living rooms. Some wonderful features are: French doors, designer paint, baseboards, can lighting, crown moulding, new windows, updated bathrooms, new tile, cabinets, lighting and more!

21892 Apache Dr, Lake Forest 92630
Last asking price: $450,000
Previous sales price: $744,000
Previous sales date: 11/14/05
Listing description snippet: THIS ONE HAS IT ALL* GREAT NEIGHBORHOOD* HUGE LOT* OPEN FLOORPLAN*PRIVATE CORNER LOT*GOOD SIZE BEDROOMS WITH ONE DOWNSTAIRS*WOOD FLOORING* VAULTED CEILINGS* KITCHEN OPENS TO FAMILY ROOM* PLENTY OF KITCHEN CABINETS* COZY FIREPLACE IN FAMILY ROOM*CLOSE TO LAKE, SCHOOLS, SHOPS, PARKS AND SUN & SAIL CLUB*LOW TAX RATE*READY TO MOVE IN*

31 Colorido, RSM 92688
Last asking price: $530,000
Previous sales price: $252,500
Previous sales date: 5/13/93
Listing description snippet: Fell out of escrow! 5 bedroom, 3 bath, 2,200 sq ft detached home in great Rancho Santa Margarita neighborhood! 4 bedrooms on second level with 1 bedroom on main floor. Kitchen with upgraded granite tile counters. Sunny breakfast nook. Family room with ceiling fan.

10 Claymont Dr, Ladera Ranch 92694
Last asking price: $509,900
Previous sales price: $725,000
Previous sales date: 5/10/04
Listing description snippet: Fabulous corner lot location in the heart of OakKnoll Village in Ladera Ranch. Gorgeous, 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath property offers extensive upgrades including, warm wood floors, upgraded carpet, crown mouldings, Great Room including Granite Kitchen with huge Island open to family room and dining area. Formal Living Room for upscale entertaining. Award-Winning Chaparral Elementary, Ladera Middle school and Tesoro high schoool!

Split the difference in RSM

As we head past the Labor Day mark and head into fall, it will be interesting to see what happens to sales. Will the government incentives still be enough to lure even more buyers?

It's a common negotiating tactic to try and split the difference - particularly if it works to your advantage. Say you bid $100,000, but the seller comes back with $200,000. You were planning to pay $175,000, but you see an opening. So, you say: "Why don't we meet in the middle at $150,000." That sounds fair, so the seller agrees and you've got a deal.

Here's a property that's splitting the difference in another way ... when we compare the 1999 price to the 2004 price that is...

8 Freesia, RSM 92688
Asking price: $649,000

Beds:	4
Baths:	3
Sq. Ft.:	2,877
$/Sq. Ft.:	$226
Lot Size:	5,000 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Single Family Residence
Style:	Mediterranean
Stories:	2
View:	Hills
Year Built:	1999
Community:	Las Flores
County:	Orange
MLS#:	S576384
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	98 days

From listing: Fantastic Location on a beautiful CUL-DE-SAC. Upgrades include GRANITE COUNTERS, MAPLE CABINETS, AND A DOUBLE OVEN in the Kitchen, TRAVERTINE, IRON AND WOOD STAIRCASE, CUSTOM WINDOW COVERINGS, BUILT IN BBQ, CUSTOM SHUTTERS, CUSTOM ITALIAN TYPE TILE FLOORS, BUILT IN CABINETS IN THE GARAGE, CEILING FANS IN MOST OF THE ROOMS, LARGE WALK IN CLOSET IN THE MASTER, RETREAT/LOT AREA OUTSIDE THE MASTER, UP STAIRS LAUNDRY ROOM, PROPERTY BACKS THE NATURE PERSERVE.

They say nature "perserve." We think wilderness. This property came onto the market about three months ago asking $715,000. With no sale, it's now down a bit to the current asking price of $649,000.

What the heck did we mean when we said "split the difference"? Well, this property sold for $406,500 in October 1999. Just five years later, it sold for $835,000. Yes,it doubled in price in half a decade.

Now, the asking price is just about in between. Call it a 2002 and-a-half price in the $600,000 range. Will it go for the asking price in the middle? Only the lender knows for sure. Assuming it does, we're looking at a depreciation of 22% off the 2004 sales price, not including any transaction or other costs.

Salida-ing down in San Clemente

One of the "stars" of Real Housewives of OC has been evicted from her home, if you're into that sort of thing.

Let's go to another coastal South OC city today, San Clemente. Check out the asking price on this short sale. Then check out what the previous sales price was...

209 Calle Salida, 92672
Asking price: $700,000

Beds:	4
Baths:	4
Sq. Ft.:	2,347
$/Sq. Ft.:	$298
Lot Size:	7,130 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Single Family Residence
Style:	Other
Stories:	1
View:	Greenbelt, Park or Green Belt, Has View
Year Built:	1976
Community:	San Clemente Central
County:	Orange
MLS#:	S558172
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	246 days

From listing: Cul-De-Sac Single Level Home On A Large Lot Located Next To The Park. Open & Spacious Floor Plane 2 Master Bedrooms. The Master Suite With Vaulted Ceiling & Direct Access to Large Backyard And Golf Cours. Kitchen With Nook & Separate Dining Area. Living Room With Hardwood Flooring. Most of Rooms With Ceiling Fans. Kitchen With Access To Patio

Previous sales price: $1,050,000 in 2005.
Previous sales price before that: $318,182 in 2001.

Check out the photo - Happy Holidays! That is, Happy 2008 Holidays! One would think a house asking this much money would have better photos. Perhaps the discount off the previous sales price has a lot to do with the lack of effort.

Assuming the lender will let this one go after 247 days on Redfin (without a price reduction) for the full asking price, the loss would be 33.33333...%, before any sales costs.

San Juan losing it

Got a bad case of the Mondays like we do? Be grateful you're not in the same situation as this San Juan property that's asking more than 50% off the peak price.

29626 Oakwood Ct, 92675
Asking price: $199,900
Previous sales price: $460,000
Previous sales date: 8/7/06

Beds:	3
Baths:	2
Sq. Ft.:	1,071
$/Sq. Ft.:	$187
Lot Size:	2,500 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Condominium
Style:	Contemporary
Stories:	1
Floor:	1
Year Built:	1972
Community:	San Juan North
County:	Orange
MLS#:	P692782
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	61 days

From listing: THIS IS A NICE patio home. Owner has taken good care of the property. All tile floors. Nice oversized patio with overgrown plants. Direct access garage to kitchen, plus extra parking space. Great location in the village. Come take a look, you won't be dissapointed !

So, this property could use a bit of redecorating. It also could use a photographer who made sure the towel was off the towel rack before snapping the photo. Details, details...

Redfin says this property last sold for $460,000 in 2006 for the stupidly high price of $430/sq ft. Now, the asking price is at $187/sq ft.

Assuming the property can actually be sold for the current asking price, it would mean a 57% drop from the peak, not including any sales costs. Redfin also says the property sold for $400,000 in 2004, so that means it's just about an even 50% off from that.

Big potential loss in San Juan

Today's luxury property in San Juan represents a huge potential loss - that is, if this short sale can actually find a buyer at a price the bank is willing to take...

27301 Corte Montecito, 92675
Asking price: $1,070,000
Asking price/ sq ft: $268
Purchase price: $1,567,000
Purchase date: 4/25/06
Size: 5 beds, 4.5 baths, 4,000 sq ft (built in 2006)
MLS: S570216 (112 days on Redfin)
ZipRealty price tracker: Price Reduced: 04/30/09 -- $1,150,000 to $1,070,000
HOA dues: $295
Type: Single Family Residence
Stories: 2
Lot size: 0.28 Acres
From listing: exclusive william lyon home in the gated community of Floralisa in Racho Madrina.Fully upgraded through out with hardwood flooring,marble and travertine in master bath. Custom cabinets in kitchen with granite counter tops,stainless steel appliances and sub-zero. Crown molding,surround sound systems with speakers and custom built ins. master bedroom and an additional bedroom with bath downstairs. Cul-de-sac location with circular driveway. Very private location.

It's obvious there's a problem today when you consider we're looking at a McMansion-sized property built at the peak of the bubble with all the bubble interior touches. This isn't going to fly in 2009.

Redfin says the sales price was $1.567 million. Imagine how much extra was probably spent on upgrades, furnishings and everything else to make this property a home.

If we were to assume the bank can and will take the current asking price as an approved sales price, and the transaction goes through, the loss would be about $500,000 - before figuring in sales costs and not including any extra money spent on upgrades.

What's a million between friends?

Here's a $1.6 million short sale in Talega (San Clemente). It's even overlooking the 5th hole of the Talega Golf Course. Sweet! Not if you're the lender and the asking price is $1 million below the previous sales price.

24 Corte Vizcaya, 92673
Asking price: $1,600,000
Asking price/ sq ft: $284
Purchase price: $2,600,000
Purchase date: 5/15/06
Size: 5 beds, 5.5 baths, 5,633 sq ft (built in 2001)
MLS: S521360 (531 days on Redfin)
ZipRealty price tracker: Price Reduced: 03/03/08 -- $2,495,000 to $2,299,000
Price Reduced: 03/26/08 -- $2,299,000 to $2,100,000
Price Reduced: 04/01/08 -- $2,100,000 to $1,995,000
Price Reduced: 05/24/08 -- $1,995,000 to $1,800,000
Price Increased: 06/06/08 -- $1,800,000 to $1,850,000
Price Reduced: 03/25/09 -- $1,750,000 to $1,650,000
HOA dues: $158
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Mediterranean
Stories: 3+
Lot size: 0.51 Acres
From listing: Overlooking the 5th hole of the Talega Golf Course on one of the most coveted lots in Talega, this exceptional Vizcaya property is rich in luxury. Amenities include plank-wood & Travertine flooring, custom window treatments, billiards and media rooms, and a gourmet kitchen with Viking S/S appliances and Sub-Zero fridge. Outside, discover an entertainer's dream yard, complete with private pool, spa, cabana, built-in outdoor kitchen and personal tot-lot. Enjoy resort living at its best - while in the privacy and comfort of your own home.

Here's another of your increasingly common high-end short sales. Think this property is going to move any time soon considering the asking price? That probably helps explain why the house has been on the market for more than 500 days!

And, judging by the pictures, it's also empty. There's a notice of default and it's a short sale. Double whammy.

Assuming the property is sold for the current asking price...well there's not really much use in going through that exercise because we know the inevitable result: this will likely become a foreclosure, go back to the bank and then get resold.

Major short sale in Ladera

Over the weekend, we posted a quick sampling of some South OC properties in the "Backup offers accepted" stage. Here's another on in Ladera Ranch that interests us to see whether it will make it all the way to the finish considering the discount.

9 Copious Lane, 92694
Asking price: $865,000
Asking price/ sq ft: $201
Purchase price: $1,300,000
Purchase date: 5/25/07
Size: 5 beds, 5.5 baths, 4,300 sq ft (built in 2005)
MLS: S573895 (71 days on Redfin)
Original asking price: $975,000
HOA dues: $190
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Carriage House
Stories: 2
Lot size: 5,619 Sq. Ft.
From listing: Beautiful 5 Bedrooms plus Office,Den,& Sun Room! ** Loads of upgrades! Located on a culdesac close to the park! Looks like 'Father of the Bride' home! Office has custom built-ins with wood panels and custom ceiling, crown moulding through-out. Upgraded flooring and custom window treatments, Built-in Speakers, Large Gourmet kitchen with island, granite counters, wood cabinetry, wine fridge and much more, Family room has beautiful custom wood built-in media niche and surround sound speakers. Intercom system throughout the house. Third Car garage was converted to an extra room, could easily convert back to a garage. Backyard has been professionally landscaped. This is an entertainers dream yard! Built-in BBQ & Fireplace, custom built-in Spa, Outdoor Logia and Putting Green with outdoor speakers. close to the water parks, school and club houses.

For the fiscal year ending in June 2009, the taxes on this property were $19,997. That includes more than $6,000 on mello roos alone. Of course, if the property changes hands for a lot less money, then the taxes go down. But that's still a lot of mello roos.

It will be interesting to see how much the lender lets this one go for (if it indeed does complete the sale). We wouldn't be surprised if the agreed-upon price was higher than the asking price considering the discount off the 2007 price ($435,000). But if that were the sales price, and we include transaction costs, the loss would be nearly $490,000 - not including all that money spent on upgrades..

Holdin' the bag in Ladera

This Ladera Ranch property is the result of what happens when you're stuck when the real estate musical chairs ends. Oops...

24 Winslow St, 92694
Asking price: $820,000
Asking price/ sq ft: $216
Purchase price: $1,300,000
Purchase date: 6/24/04
Size: 5 beds, 4.5 baths, 3,800 sq ft (built in 2000)
MLS: S550961 (268 days on Redfin)
HOA dues: $160
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Cape Cod
Stories: 2
Lot size: 7,034 Sq. Ft.
From listing: Award winning Wyeth plan 3. Features 5 bedrooms plus library and a bonus room/loft! Well appointed home with hardwood floors, crown molding, designer paint/carpet, granite kitchen, built-in entertainment center, plantation shutters and an outdoor fireplace with bbq. Some other highlights of the home are a separate 3rd car garage, front and rear staircases, tech center and a split level library/office. Located on a cul de sac street minutes away from shopping centers and community amenities.

As you may have noticed by the days on Redfin count, this is not a new listing by any means. In fact, it's one of those that's been around the block and gone through a number of different incarnations.

The first in October 2008 involved an asking price identical to the 2004 bubble price of $1.3 million. Later on, in January of this year, it went down to $800,000. Now, it's back up to $820,000.

The previous sales history is also interesting - $560,000 in 2000; $750,000 in 2002 and then $1.3 million in 2004. That's an increase of 132% in four years. Now, if the property can be sold for the current asking price, it would mean a decline of 37% over five years.

'02 rollback in Laguna Canyon?

Surely we jest - a near 2002 rollback in the city of Laguna Beach? It just may be correct - provided the short sale can go through, that is.

21398 Stans Lane, 92651
Asking price: $525,000
Asking price/ sq ft: $493
Purchase price: $515,000
Purchase date: 8/5/02
Size: 2 beds, 1 bath, 1,064 sq ft (built in 1965)
MLS: S573581 (49 days on Redfin)
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Bungalow
Stories: 1
Lot size: 7,480 Sq. Ft.
From listing: From CA-133 turn east onto Sun Valley Drive then turn left to stay on Sun Valley Drive then turn right on to Stans Lane to 21398 Stans Lane, Laguna Beach, CA. 92651

The Redfin history says this property went for $375,000 in 2001 and then $515,000 in 2002. Whatever the actual details, since it's a short sale we know the debt on the property will not be exhausted if there is a sale. It's up to the bank to decide - is it 2002 again in Laguna Canyon?

$385/sq ft in Laguna

This Laguna Beach property has seen quite a swing in a relatively short amount of time. Right now, it's on the market as a short sale. As you'll see, it's also a bit different than your average single family house...

437 Cypress Dr, 92651
Asking price: $1,929,000
Asking price/ sq ft: $385
Purchase price: $1,740,000
Purchase date: 3/26/07
Size: 10 beds, 8.75 baths, 5,009 sq ft (built in 1937)
MLS: L26112 (429 days on Redfin)
ZipRealty price tracker: Price Reduced: 05/22/08 -- $2,700,000 to $2,695,000
Price Increased: 12/08/08 -- $1,995,000 to $1,999,000
Price Reduced: 05/18/09 -- $1,995,000 to $1,949,000
Price Reduced: 05/27/09 -- $1,949,000 to $1,929,000
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Cottage, Craftsman
Stories: 2
Lot size: 6,000 Sq. Ft.
From listing: BACK ON THE MARKET AS A SHORT SALE! PRICE REDUCED! North Laguna historic charmer, close to downtown! THE PROPERTY APPRAISED FOR $2,700,000 IN OCT 2007. Short walk to beach, galleries, shops, restaurants, art museum, and movie theatre. Home ideal for owner desiring extra income, or with in-laws or nanny. Main residence has 4 bedrooms(3 upstairs and 1 downstairs)4 baths, office, bonus room. Newly remodeled kitchen: granite counters, Kitchenaid stainless steel appliances, Subzero refrigerator, Thermidor 6 burner professional range & oven. Rare 5 income producing units in the rear: One spacious 2 Bd/1 ba, and 4 studio/1 ba units. Fully occupied. Upper units and main house have ocean views. Partially remodeled. Units have new hardwood floors, kitchens with new appliances, cabinets, and granite countertops. Separate office and community laundry in rear.

As the description states, this is actually an income-producing property (theoretically), along with a larger main house where the landlord could live. If you instead want to simply use this as your own place, you'll first have to honor the existing leases.

The owner tried to make a fast buck in December 2008 by placing the property up for sale for almost $1 million more than they had paid for it in early 2007. Not happening. Now, the asking price has been reduced by 29% and it's a short sale.

Assuming the house can be successfully sold for the current asking price, and we take off 6% for sales costs, there would still be a gain. So, it's safe to assume there is more debt on this property than first meets the eye.

Four-in-one short sale

There's an interesting potential feat going on in the Cantora neighborhood of Aliso Viejo - four short sale properties are currently in the "accepting backup offers" stage...

31 Mayfair has 3 beds, 2 baths and about 1,600 sq ft. The last asking price of $399,000 was nearly $200,000 below the bubble price of $595,000.

107 Mayfair has 2 beds and about 1,100 square feet. The previous sales price in 2005 was $517,500! Prevous asking price: $325,000, which was below the 2003 price. Potential depreciation of 37%, assuming property sells for full asking price.

136 Mayfair (pictured at the top of the post) has 3 beds, 2 baths and is 1,729 sq ft. Last asking price of $399,000 means the potential buyer is getting an end unit with more square footage than 31 Mayfair for the same price. Bubble previous sales price was $645,000.

53 Meadowbrook has 3 beds and around 1,550 square feet. It sold for $499,000, but the last asking price this time around was $397,000.

All told, the lenders behind these possible short sales need to decide whether $600,000 will be lost by letting the houses sell for less than the previous sales prices. And, that doesn't include any borrowing above and beyond the original mortgages. As we know, that did happen plenty in South OC.

Closer to '01 in San Juan

Another day, another short sale and another big rollback. This time, we're in San Juan...

31062 Paseo Ranchero, 92675
Asking price: $725,000
Asking price/ sq ft: $220
Purchase price: $917,000
Purchase date: 4/23/04
Size: 5 beds, 2.75 baths, 3,300 sq ft (built in 1993)
MLS: S566646 (91 days on Redfin)
ZipRealty price tracker: Price Reduced: 3/30/09 -- $749,000 to $725,000
Zillow Zestimate: $844,000
HOA dues: $102
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Ranch
Stories: 2
Lot size: 0.27 Acres
From listing: Incredible home that has been loved in a great area of San Juan Capistrano. This emotional home has beautiful polished cement floors down stairs and Mocha Brazilian wood upstairs. Beautiful lighting, and a spectacular kitchen highlight this impressive home. The kitchen includes high end stainless appliances, a walk in pantry and views of the rolling hillsides. This home has a great, flowing floorplan with one bedroom down, 4 bedrooms up and a very large upstairs room that could be media room, teen room or a 6th bedroom.

The fact that the house "has been loved" makes it all the more painful that the current owners have had the property for more than five years and are likely to leave it under bad financial circumstances.

It's obvious this property is at least a 2003 rollback - assuming, of course, the bank will let it go for the asking price. If so, it would mean a discount of 21% off the 2004 price. Said another way, the asking price is closer to the 2001 sales price of $655,000 than it is to the price five years ago.