Almost gone in Laguna

Gasp! Another luxury property off the market in Laguna Beach. Let's deconstruct this one to see what we find...

2130 Hillview Dr, 92651
Asking price: $1,329,000
Previous sales price: $1,250,000
Previous sales date: 12/11/09

Beds:	4
Baths:	2.5
Sq. Ft.:	3,000
$/Sq. Ft.:	$443
Lot Size:	8,000 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Residential, Single Family
Style:	3+ Levels, Contemporary
View:	Canyon, Catalina, Hills, Ocean, Panoramic, Has View, Water
Year Built:	1975
Community:	Laguna Village
County:	Orange
MLS#:	S600818
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Backup Offers Accepted This listing is under contract, but the sellers are looking for additional offers in case the current offer falls through.
On Redfin:	33 days

From listing: Prime Laguna Location. Estate Style Privacy at the end of a Cul De Sac. Awesome surrounding views of the Ocean, Hills, and Canyon. A short distance to Downtown Laguna! 4 spacious bedrooms, A lovely Kitchen and Den with Sitdown Ocean Views. Large wrapping decks View decks, and a Private Courtyard W/ views from the Spa! There's also a separate Guest Cottage above the Garage. Close to all 3 Schools. MUCH MORE!!!

We're going to assume this isn't an REO, and check out the sales history. Redfin says this property sold for $351,500 in 1993, and again in 2005 for $1.57 million.

That means, the property went up in value by a factor of about 4.5 in 12 years. But now, if we're led to believe that the property can and will go for the last asking price of $1.329 million, it means the decline since the peak is about 15% for this property.

Just don't get it

There are a few things about this Ladera Ranch that leave us scratching our head. But, if Redfin says a buyer has been found and the property is in the accepting backup offers stage, we'll buy it. Figuratively, not literally.

15 Lanesboro Rd, 92694
Asking price: $675,000
Previous sales price: $560,000
Previous sales date: 5/28/03

Beds:	4
Baths:	3
Sq. Ft.:	2,768
$/Sq. Ft.:	$244
Lot Size:	5,859 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Residential, Single Family
Style:	Two Level, Spanish
View:	Has View
Year Built:	2003
Community:	Ladera Ranch
County:	Orange
MLS#:	S588256
Source:	CARETS
Status:	Backup Offers Accepted
On Redfin:	53 days

From listing: This Beautiful 4 Bedroom 3 Bathroom Home Is Ideally Located At The End Of A Cul-De-Sac In The Sterling Glen Tract Of Ladera Ranch. This Floor Plan Is Very Open And Has Many Windows And Doors That Offer Natural Light And Are Accented By Plantation Shutters. The Main Floor Bedroom Is Currently Being Used As An Office, However It Could Easily Be Used As The 4th Bedroom. The Large Master Suite Has A Joining Retreat Area That Could Be Converted To A 5th Bedroom If Needed. This Home Has Extensive Stone Flooring Throughout The First Level And Carpeting Up The Stairway And Into The Bedrooms. The Lush Trees And Vines In The Backyard Offer Much Privacy And Is Ideal For Entertaining Family And Friends.

We'll try to ignore the title case in the listing description if you will. At the top of this blog entry, we mentioned that a couple things with this listing confused us. In no particular order, they are:

• Who in the name of Martha Stewart leaves a trailer parked in the driveway for your MLS photo?
• Then, why would you make said photo with trailer the first image people see of the property?
• It's generally understood that South OC real estate in general - particularly a bubble-happy pocket like Ladera Ranch - is barely clinging to 2003 pricing (at best). Why would you list your short sale property for $115,000 above the previous sales price?
• As a buyer, would you jump in to buy a short sale at all?
• Would you then agree to buy said short sale for well above the 2003 price?
  

In reality, our questions mean nothing because it appears a buyer and seller have successfully come together. Just another South OC pending sale.

Lots of Ladera pendings

We've got four pending sales in the Ladera Ranch community of Chambray - two more active listings are looking for buyers. All four of the pending sales are also short sales.

Just a few years ago, these were going for $500k+. Let's see what's going on down there...

68 Garrison Loop
Last asking price: $298,500-324,567
Previous sales price: $515,000
Previous sales date: 7/21/06
Size: 3 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,417 sq ft
Listing description snippet: WHEN CAN YOU REMEMBER THE LAST OPPORTUNITY TO BUY A PROPERTY LIKE THIS? THIS IS AN EXCELLENT VALUE. 3 BEDROOMS, 2 1/2 BATHS, 2 CAR GARAGE, 2 STORY, AND IT SHOWS BEAUTIFULLY!

36 Garrison Loop
Last asking price: $335,000
Previous sales price: N/A
Previous sales date: N/A
Size: 3 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,417 sq ft
Listing description snippet: Highly upgraded unit in a great location. Tile entry with New Pergo wood flooring in Dining and Kitchen. New Carpeting in Livingroom with tiled fireplace and ceiling fan. Upgraded cabinets, Ceiling fans in all bedrooms and Plantation Shutters throughout. Master bedroom has walk-in closet in master bath and double vanity. Inside laundry.

41 Chadron Circle
Last asking price: $329,900
Previous sales price: $480,000
Previous sales date: 6/26/06
Size: 3 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,500 sq ft
Listing description snippet: Wrap-around private porch/entertainment area. Corian Counters, separate formal dining room, two separate living areas )formal living/family). Kitchen counter bar eating area. Built-in media niche & stone surround fireplace in family room. Ceiling fans throughout, encased windows. Garage cabinetry with sink. Chaparral - Highest Rated Elementary!!!Pride of Ownership...

11 Chadron Circle
Last asking price: $330,000
Previous sales price: $525,000
Previous sales date: 7/28/05
Size: 3 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,417 sq ft
Listing description snippet: This is an amazing opportunity to live in one of south OC's most sought-after neighborhood communities. Beautiful view of the canyon, rolling hills, and stunning sunsets. Nestled in a peaceful location of the tract.

Weekend pending sales report

We're back today with a look at a few more properties that have entered the "backup offers accepted stage." Will they close, and if so, what will be the final price?

930 Rio Lindo, San Clemente 92673
Last asking price: $800,000
Previous sales price: $1,030,000
Previous sales date: 1/25/07
Listing description snippet: "Custom hardscape in front, newly painted in updated warm palette. Low HOA and no Mello Roos. This is NOT a short sale! "
Our comment: Sure, the asking price was well below the '07 price, but this isn't as much of a rollback as it first appears - the 2004 price was $870,000. However, we also know that "over $120,000 (was) spent in recent upgrades." That makes the loss more significant.

63 Valmont Way, Ladera Ranch 92694
Last asking price: $249,000
Previous sales price: $468,000
Previous sales date: 6/9/06
Listing description snippet: "End unit offers extra windows and natural light. Two bedroom PLUS and OFFICE with 2.5 baths. Highly upgraded throughout with a gorgeous newer BIG kitchen with granite and upgraded cabinets everything you could ask for!"
Our comment: We remember looking at this neighborhood a few years ago, and thinking it was crazy that these types of units were going for $400k+. As you can see, those days are over.

591 Balboa Ave, Laguna Beach 92651
Last asking price: $4,195,000
Previous sales price: $175,000 (land)
Previous sales date: 3/23/99
Listing description snippet: "This stunning Mark Singer Contemporary home has a one of a kind living experience with incomparable panoramic ocean views."
Our comment: Yes, there are still people with money who are buying top-of-the-line properties in Laguna Beach.

Headed for sale in LN

We recently talked to a consultant with excellent knowledge of the job market. In his opinion, if you've got a job - even if it's not your dream role- hold on. There are currently too few jobs for too many potential employees, and it's a serious buyers' market out there. That is, if the company you're targeting is even hiring.

So, it's bad news if you're looking for a job right now unless it's an absolute necessity. Perhaps you're one of the many in between jobs. If you're in that position, we wish you all the best.

The housing market is similar right now. If you're an owner, and you don't have to sell (read: you're actually paying your mortgage on time, or you don't have one), would you want to put the property on the market now and compete with a significant amount of distressed properties and falling prices?

Not likely. It's still too much of a buyers' market. The buyers are hungry for perceived foreclosure/distressed "steals" in the lower-price ranges.

Today's property in Laguna Niguel is in the "accepting backup offers" stage. It's also a preforeclosure and a 2003 rollback in a nice neighborhood. Thanks to reader Stephanie for pointing this one out.

27795 Homestead Rd, 92677
Asking price: $890,000
Asking price/ sq ft: $285
Purchase price: $1,200,000
Purchase date: 5/11/04
Size: 5 beds, 4 baths, 3,128 sq ft (built in 1998)
MLS: P656357 (51 days on Redfin)
ZipRealty price tracker: Price Reduced: 09/28/08 -- $978,000 to $958,000
Price Reduced: 10/09/08 -- $958,000 to $910,000
Zillow Zestimate: $1.127 million
HOA dues: $159
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Mediterranean
From listing: San Joaquin Hills (south) 5 bedroom 4 bath gated community. Home offers PANORAMIC MOUNTAIN/CITYLIGHT VIEWS, Featuring an office with custom built-ins, Family room with fireplace,carpet & hardwood flooring, kitchen with breakfast area,formal living & dining rooms,master suite with serene hillside views,walk in closets, shower & soaking tub,backyard with patio, built-in BBQ and a great view. A spectacular residence in a great location. PANORAMIC VIEWS....

The photos make the home appear vacant. Guess that means the owner has given up and moved on. They purchased the property for $1.2 million using a 20% downpayment ($240,000).

Then, in September, a notice of default was filed for $18,936.

If we are to assume that the fact that the property is headed to escrow means it will be sold, then we're looking at a $363,400 loss. The owner's downpayment would be gone and the lender would be out $123,400. If we take out sales costs, it would be a depreciation of 26% off the 2004 price.

The sales price also would be $30,000 below the July 2003 price. All these calculations assume the property sells for the full asking price.

Here we have some scary anecdotal evidence: A high-end property in distress that will be sold for less than its 2003 price. The owner did not use crazy financing - quite the contrary, they put a solid 20% down. And yet, after holding the property for four years, they still ended up significantly upside down.

This does not bode well. At all.

Pending luxury rollbacks

These are all properties pending for sale in the MLS that had an asking price well below the previous sales price in Zillow. Not all of these may make it all the way to the final sale, but they are properties on which the buyer and seller have agreed to a price and set of terms.

Remember, it is more than likely that the agreed-upon price is below the asking price, so the "real" loss will even more when and if the property closes. So, the "depreciation" figures are most likely understating the damage. Note: the depreciation does not include any sales costs.

These examples show that, at least judging by asking prices, the higher-end properties in South OC areas closer to the beach are currently holding values better than homes in regions that are further inland.

22 Via Andorra , Coto De Caza, 92679
Size: 4 beds, 3 baths, 2,400 sq ft
Asking price: $709,900
Peak price: $970,000 on 6/17/05
Depreciation: $260,100 (27%)
Last transaction price: $715,500 on 10/9/07
Days on market: 149
Pending date: 2/14

1693 Hillcrest Dr , Laguna Beach, 92651
Size: 3 beds, 3 baths, 2,000 sq ft
Asking price: $ 1,795,000
Peak price: $1,850,000 on 6/23/05
Depreciation: $55,000 (3%)
Days on market: 21
Pending date: 3/21


21 Via Santander , San Clemente, 92673
Size: 3 beds, 2.5 baths, 2,463 sq ft
Asking price: $699,000
Peak price: $980,000 on 6/20/05
Depreciation: $281,000 (29%)
Last transaction price: $774,253 on 6/6/07
Days on market: 275
Pending date: 3/28

2 Cavalier, Laguna Niguel, 92677
Size: 3 beds, 4 baths, 2,590 sq ft
Asking price: $1,850,000
Peak price: $1,900,000
Depreciation: $50,000 (3%)
Days on market: 16
Pending date: 3/25

8 Sunswept Mesa , Aliso Viejo, 92656
Size: 5 beds, 4 baths, 3,600 sq ft
Asking price: $1,099,000
Peak price: $1,262,500 on 2/10/06
Depreciation: $163,500 (13%)
Days on market: 392
Pending date: 3/19

Pending sales, March 17

Here we go with another of what is turning into a semi-weekly feature. Enjoy...

All these South OC properties are recent additions to the pending sales list in the MLS. Not all may make it to closing, and we won't know what the final sales prices is for a while (we also never will know the full extent of incentives like seller-paid closing costs). Still, these are indicators of the type of activity going on in the local market.

Expect some of these to be short sales and REOs. In the case of an REO, the most recent "purchase price" is sometimes actually the amount the property went back to the bank for. Some of the most recent sales or transactions might not even be showing up properly in Zillow at all.

Potential profit/loss assumes a completed sale at the full asking price, minus 6% sales costs, subtracted from the previous purchase price showing in Zillow.

16 Seacliff, Coto, 92679
Last asking price: $905,000
Size: 5 beds, 5 baths, 3,550 sq ft
Listing date: 11/19/07
Purchase price: $1,030,000
Potential profit/loss: $-179,300


35705 Beach Road, Dana Point, 92624
Last asking price: $5,659,000
Size: 3 beds, 3 baths, 4,200 sq ft
Listing date: 1/4/08
Purchase price: $4,250,000
Potential profit/loss: $1,069,460


31446 Calle La Purisima #43, San Juan, 92675
Last asking price: $198,900
Size: 2 beds, 2 baths, 1,057 sq ft
Listing date: 3/8/08
Purchase price*: $260,000
Potential profit/loss: $-73,034
* - peak price was $470,000

702 Camino De Los Mares , S. Clemente, 92673
Last asking price: $515,000
Size: 3 beds, 2 baths, 1,644 sq ft
Listing date: 2/12/08
Purchase price: $750,000
Potential profit/loss: $-265,900


24702 Jessica Pl , Laguna Niguel, 92677
Last asking price: $1,699,876
Size: 4 beds, 5 baths, 3,316 sq ft
Listing date: 11/3/07
Purchase price: $1,606,500
Potential profit/loss: $-86,16.56


6 Vellisimo, Aliso Viejo, 92656
Last asking price: $425,000
Size: 3 beds, 3 baths, 1,350 sq ft
Listing date: 1/31/08
Purchase price: $311,500
Potential profit/loss: $88,000

Pending sales, March 4

All these South OC properties are recent additions to the pending sales list in the MLS. Not all may make it to closing, and we won't know what the final sales prices is for a while (we also never will know the full extent of incentives like seller-paid closing costs). Still, these are indicators of the type of activity going on in the local market.

Expect some of these to be short sales and REOs. In the case of an REO, the "purchase price" is sometimes actually the amount the property went back to the bank for. Some of the most recent sales or transactions might not even be showing up properly in Zillow at all.

Potential profit/loss assumes a completed sale at the full asking price, minus 6% sales costs, subtracted from the previous purchase price showing in Zillow.

19031 Willow Brook Lane, RSM, 92688
Last asking price: $690,000
Size: 4 beds, 3 baths, 2,500 sq ft
Listing date: 1/18/08
Purchase price: $885,000
Potential profit/loss: -$236,400


31022 Via Mirador, SJC,92675
Last asking price: $1,737,000
Size: 3 beds, 4.5 baths, 4,112 sq ft
Listing date: 1/8/08
Purchase price: $899,000
Potential profit/loss: $733,780


26701 Quail Crk #41, 92653
Last asking price: $225,000
Size: 1 bed, 1 bath, 676 sq ft
Listing date: 12/20/07
Purchase price: $305,000
Potential profit/loss: $-93,500


23052 Bouquet Cyn , Mission Viejo, 92692
Last asking price: $824,900
Size: 5 beds, 3 baths, 2,900 sq ft
Listing date: 2/17/08
Purchase price: $1,249,000
Potential profit/loss: $-473,594


32451 Seven Seas Dr, Dana Point, 92629
Last asking price: $3,200,000
Size: 4 beds, 5 baths, 4,391 sq ft
Listing date: 1/22/08
Purchase price: $1,620,000
Potential profit/loss: $1,388,000

Pending sales, Jan. 27

All these South OC properties are recent additions to the pending sales list in the MLS. Not all may make it to closing, and we won't know what the final sales prices is for a while (we also never will know the full extent of incentives like seller-paid closing costs). Still, these are indicators of the type of activity going on in the local market.

Expect some of these to be short sales and REOs. In the case of an REO, the "purchase price" is really the amount the property went back to the bank for.

Potential profit/loss assumes a completed sale at the full asking price, minus 6% sales costs, subtracted from the previous purchase price showing in Zillow.

29372 Via Acaso, L. Niguel, 92677
Last asking price: $654,900
Size: 4 beds, 2.5 baths, 2,200 sq ft
Purchase price: $773,000
Purchase date: 9/30/04
Potential profit/loss: $-157,394


17 Calle Cangrejo , SC, 92673
Asking price: $699,900
Size: 4 beds, 2.75 baths, 2,400 sq ft
Purchase price: $965,000
Purchase date: 7/1/05
Profit/loss: $-307,094


70 Rue Du Chateau #77, AV, 92656
Asking price: $464,900
Size: 3 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,378 sq ft
Purchase price: $498,440
Purchase date: 9/12/07
Profit/loss: $-61,434


28 Alicante , Coto de Caza, 92679
Asking price: $1,249,000
Size: 4 beds, 3 baths, 2,735 sq ft
Purchase price: $629,000
Purchase date: 5/1/01
Profit/loss: $545,060


23415 Caminito Basilio #326, L. Hills, 92653
Asking price: $359,900
Size: 3 beds, 2 baths, 1,400 sq ft
Purchase price: $282,000
Purchase date: 6/11/03
Profit/loss: $56,306


26952 Colmenar , Mission Viejo, 92692
Asking price: $480,000
Size: 3 beds, 2 baths, 1,472 sq ft
Purchase price: $668,000
Purchase date: 9/1/06
Profit/loss: $-216,800

Pending sales in Laguna Niguel

I'm going to start regularly posting on pending sales around South County to give you an idea of what's moving in this slow real estate market. Today, we're looking at some sample properties in Laguna Niguel (92677 ZIP), which is showing 16 pending sales.

Keep in mind though that it's not uncommon in today's shaky lending environment for deals to fall apart at the last minute because of financing issues (among other reasons). So, there is no guarantee all of these will make it all the way to closing.

28571 La Alcala
Size: 3 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,360 sq ft
Last asking price: $579,900
Previous purchase price: $445,000
Purchase date: 8/8/03
Potential profit/loss*: $100,106


27943 Via Del Agua
Size: 3 beds, 2 baths, 1,609 sq ft
Last asking price: $519,500
Prev. purchase price: $187,000
Purchase date: 9/15/94
Profit/loss: $301,330


29546 Teracina
Size: 4 beds, 4 baths, 2,792 sq ft (REO)
Last asking price: $799,900
Prev. purchase price: $1,000,000 (looks like a refi)
Purchase date: 2/2/05
Profit/loss: $-248,094


23740 Sea Breeze Ln #19
Size: 3 beds, 2 baths, 944 sq ft
Last asking price: $324,900
Prev. purchase price: $460,000
Purchase date: 11/15/05
Profit/loss: $-154,594


25961 Montemar #69
Size: 3 beds, 2 baths, 1,101 sq ft
Last asking price: $304,900
Prev. purchase price: $440,000
Purchase date: 4/7/06
Profit/loss: $-153,394


2 Leicester
Size: 4 beds, 3.5 baths, 3,120 sq ft
Last asking price: $1,489,000
Prev. purchase price: $467,000
Purchase date: 8/15/96
Profit/loss: $932,660


* - Profit/loss assumes sale for the full asking price, minus 6% transaction costs. This is probably the best-case scenario in terms of profit - or the least-bad-case scenario in case of a loss.

The moral of the story is completely non-surprising: Buy and hold for a while and you'll be fine. Buy at bubble pricing and you lose.