San Juan losing it

Got a bad case of the Mondays like we do? Be grateful you're not in the same situation as this San Juan property that's asking more than 50% off the peak price.

29626 Oakwood Ct, 92675
Asking price: $199,900
Previous sales price: $460,000
Previous sales date: 8/7/06

Beds:	3
Baths:	2
Sq. Ft.:	1,071
$/Sq. Ft.:	$187
Lot Size:	2,500 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Condominium
Style:	Contemporary
Stories:	1
Floor:	1
Year Built:	1972
Community:	San Juan North
County:	Orange
MLS#:	P692782
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	61 days

From listing: THIS IS A NICE patio home. Owner has taken good care of the property. All tile floors. Nice oversized patio with overgrown plants. Direct access garage to kitchen, plus extra parking space. Great location in the village. Come take a look, you won't be dissapointed !

So, this property could use a bit of redecorating. It also could use a photographer who made sure the towel was off the towel rack before snapping the photo. Details, details...

Redfin says this property last sold for $460,000 in 2006 for the stupidly high price of $430/sq ft. Now, the asking price is at $187/sq ft.

Assuming the property can actually be sold for the current asking price, it would mean a 57% drop from the peak, not including any sales costs. Redfin also says the property sold for $400,000 in 2004, so that means it's just about an even 50% off from that.

Yep, that's a short sale

It's a Friday, so let's end the workweek on a lighter note. Think this property is due to sell any time soon? As in many instances, it depends on the bank.

Here's the address: 31263 Calle San Juan, Unit #86b, San Juan 92675
Here's the asking price: $125,000 ($139/ sq ft)
Previous sales price: $390,000
Previous sales date: 2/16/05

Is there really a point to more information on this one? Especially considering the property is being offered for 68% below what it sold for in 2006? We'll see what an investor eventually scoops this up for.

Have a great Friday everyone!

Big potential loss in San Juan

Today's luxury property in San Juan represents a huge potential loss - that is, if this short sale can actually find a buyer at a price the bank is willing to take...

27301 Corte Montecito, 92675
Asking price: $1,070,000
Asking price/ sq ft: $268
Purchase price: $1,567,000
Purchase date: 4/25/06
Size: 5 beds, 4.5 baths, 4,000 sq ft (built in 2006)
MLS: S570216 (112 days on Redfin)
ZipRealty price tracker: Price Reduced: 04/30/09 -- $1,150,000 to $1,070,000
HOA dues: $295
Type: Single Family Residence
Stories: 2
Lot size: 0.28 Acres
From listing: exclusive william lyon home in the gated community of Floralisa in Racho Madrina.Fully upgraded through out with hardwood flooring,marble and travertine in master bath. Custom cabinets in kitchen with granite counter tops,stainless steel appliances and sub-zero. Crown molding,surround sound systems with speakers and custom built ins. master bedroom and an additional bedroom with bath downstairs. Cul-de-sac location with circular driveway. Very private location.

It's obvious there's a problem today when you consider we're looking at a McMansion-sized property built at the peak of the bubble with all the bubble interior touches. This isn't going to fly in 2009.

Redfin says the sales price was $1.567 million. Imagine how much extra was probably spent on upgrades, furnishings and everything else to make this property a home.

If we were to assume the bank can and will take the current asking price as an approved sales price, and the transaction goes through, the loss would be about $500,000 - before figuring in sales costs and not including any extra money spent on upgrades.

The flip side of winning

Yesterday, we profiled a championship-level house in San Juan. Today, we're going to take a look at the other side of things - a luxury property Redfin says is way below its peak bubble price.

31692 Paseo Isabella, 92675
Asking price: $975,000-$1,200,876
Asking price/ sq ft: $310
Purchase price: $1,300,000
Purchase date: 10/7/05
Size: 4 beds, 2.5 baths, 3,143 sq ft (built in 1983)
MLS: S565429 (107 days on Redfin)
HOA dues: $220
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Victorian
Stories: 2
Lot size: 0.35 Acres
From listing: Charming custom Victorian residence on a quiet picturesque cul-de-sac.Generous rooms are complemented by French doors, plantation shutters, crown molding, stained glass & hard wood floors. The master provides a balcony, claw-foot bathtub & walk in closet.The bonus room could be a fifth bedroom. Newer roof with copper gutters. The large private yard affords privacy, gardening, play & entertaining areas. Prestigious gated community with walking & riding trails. Minutes to downtown shopping & Marina.

We wonder how long it would take to find a buyer for this property. Yes, there's a lot of land but does it do much to stand out in this type of price range? Other than maybe have a low asking price, that is...

Redfin says the previous sales price was $1.3 million about three and a half years ago. Before that, it changed hands for $675,000 in 2002. Hmm...that means the house nearly doubled in the span of three years. Not that unusual out here during the bubble.

Assuming the property sells for the low end of the price range, it would mean a decline of $325,000 off the previous sales price. If it goes at the high end, then the loss is much more "minimal" at $99,124. One thing we do know though - this property certainly hasn't gone up in value lately.

They're the champions

Congrats to the LA Lakers...the new 2009 NBA champions! Our hat's also off to this San Juan seller, who has apparently found a buyer despite the face they're playing in the very stagnant $4 million+ market.

30741 Fox Run Ln, 92675
Asking price: $4,990,000
Asking price/ sq ft: $657
Purchase price: $750,000 (for the land we're guessing)
Purchase date: 4/4/02
Size: 7 beds, 8 baths, 7,600 sq ft (built in 2003)
MLS: S561807 (135 days on Redfin, backup offers accepted)
Zillow Zestimate: Irrelevant
HOA dues: $390
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Tuscan
Stories: 3+
Lot size: 1.1 Acres
From listing: SPECTACULAR PALATIAL ESTATE! This Custom Ocean View Masterpiece 7,800 SQFT Sits on one of the Most Desirable View Lots in The Hunt Club. This Large One acre lot is an Entertainers Paradise, offering a two tee Chipping and Putting Green for the Golfer, Infinity Saltwater Pool and Spa, Pool Cabana with a Full Bath, Approx. 1600 sqft in Panoramic View Decks, State of the art surround sound through out interior and exterior, over $30,000 in Low Voltage Lighting throughout the Estate, a Magnificently done Gourmet Kitchen, Firepits, and a Separate Media Room for Movie Night! Other features include 1,500 SQ. FT. OF GARAGE SPACE, Tankless waterheater, Central Vac, & Elevator. Highly Upgraded Everything!! sparing no cost!!!! WOW!!! A down stairs mother-in-law or guest quarters with a kitchen can also be used as a Party or Bonus room and has it's own 3 car garage one level with no steps. The MOST AMAZING CRAFTSMANSHIP & ATTENTION TO DETAIL available and ABSOLUTE BEST VALUE ON THE MARKET!

Is it just us, or is it kinda odd to be talking about a $5 million house being the "vest value on the market"?

Seriously, though, what else can be said except "wow." Check out the photos and look through some of the features... chipping and putting green, saltwater pool and spa, media room, party room with its own garage. The total garage space alone (1,500 sq ft) is not a bad amount of square footage for a whole modest house.

So, what is there to learn from this? Not a whole lot. Just that there are plenty of houses in our proverbial backyards that 99.9% of us can only dream about owning. And, despite the odds, some are still finding buyers.

Closer to '01 in San Juan

Another day, another short sale and another big rollback. This time, we're in San Juan...

31062 Paseo Ranchero, 92675
Asking price: $725,000
Asking price/ sq ft: $220
Purchase price: $917,000
Purchase date: 4/23/04
Size: 5 beds, 2.75 baths, 3,300 sq ft (built in 1993)
MLS: S566646 (91 days on Redfin)
ZipRealty price tracker: Price Reduced: 3/30/09 -- $749,000 to $725,000
Zillow Zestimate: $844,000
HOA dues: $102
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Ranch
Stories: 2
Lot size: 0.27 Acres
From listing: Incredible home that has been loved in a great area of San Juan Capistrano. This emotional home has beautiful polished cement floors down stairs and Mocha Brazilian wood upstairs. Beautiful lighting, and a spectacular kitchen highlight this impressive home. The kitchen includes high end stainless appliances, a walk in pantry and views of the rolling hillsides. This home has a great, flowing floorplan with one bedroom down, 4 bedrooms up and a very large upstairs room that could be media room, teen room or a 6th bedroom.

The fact that the house "has been loved" makes it all the more painful that the current owners have had the property for more than five years and are likely to leave it under bad financial circumstances.

It's obvious this property is at least a 2003 rollback - assuming, of course, the bank will let it go for the asking price. If so, it would mean a discount of 21% off the 2004 price. Said another way, the asking price is closer to the 2001 sales price of $655,000 than it is to the price five years ago.

New ride or used REO?

What will it be - Mercedes S550 or a South Orange County condo in San Juan? Both can be yours for a little less than $100,000...


32325 Paseo Carolina Unit 135c, 92675
Asking price: $95,000
Asking price/ sq ft: $114
Bank purchase price: $146,475
Purchase date: 12/3/08
Size: 2 beds, 1 bath, 834 sq ft (built in 1972)
MLS: I09043701 (4 days on Redfin)
Zillow Zestimate: $259,500
HOA dues: $230
Type: Condominium
Stories: 2
From listing: BANK OWNED - REO SALE - PROPERTY SOLD AS-IS WITHOUT REPAIR OR WARRANTY.


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What exactly does this property look like on the inside? If there is any semblance of an interior left, it will likely sell before too long. Foreclosures are all the rage these days, don't you know.

The previous owner paid a laughable $320,000 in 2005. That's $384 per square foot for a small, old condo in not-the-greatest part of town. So much for the bubble days. Assuming the property moves for the full asking price - though there is a decent chance it will go for above list - it would represent an astounding 70% decline from the peak three and a half years ago.

Or, put another way, it would be just $20,500 (28%) higher than the 1989 price of $74,500.

Not selling at $249k? Try $1.165 million

The current owner of this San Juan property - a 2003 rollback - has tried a few typical tricks, and so far none seems to be working. We'd like to point out that one of these moves includes jacking up the asking price by almost $1 million.

26405 Smoketree Ln, 92675
Asking price: $249,000
Asking price/ sq ft: $208
Purchase price: $302,000
Purchase date: 11/21/03
Size: 2 beds, 1 bath, 1,200 sq ft (built in 1973)
MLS: S556969 (88 days on Redfin)
ZipRealty price tracker: Price Reduced: 02/26/09 -- $269,000 to $249,000
Price Increased: 03/08/09 -- $249,000 to $1,165,000
Price Reduced: 03/09/09 -- $1,165,000 to $249,000
Zillow Zestimate: $293,500
HOA dues: $112
Type: Single Family Residence
Stories: 1
Lot size: 3,000 Sq. Ft.
From listing: Single-Level Home on Cul-de-Sac with Excellent Community Recreation! Outdoor Courtyard Living! Granite & Tile Kitchen. Dining Room + Covered Dining Patio! Big Living Room Floorplan currently set-up as small Living Room + Den/3rd Bedroom. Big Master & 2nd Bedroom w/Walk-In Closets. Full Bath w/Tub. Garage, Carport, Driveway plus low-cost community RV/Boat Parking. EZ Commuter Access for I-5 & 73. Near Shops, Harbor & Beach. WOW~Community Fishing Lakes, Pools, Parks, Sports Fields & Courts, Tot Lots, Nature Trails surrounded by open Countryside!


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This property has come up for sale a few times recently asking in the $260,000-$280,000 range. It also was for rent in 2007 asking $2,200 per month.

We have to admit, though, the move to change the asking price from $249,000 to $1,165,000 is a pretty original one. Now that the price is back to $249,000 (it was changed back the next day), it must seem like a bargain. Of course, there's always the possibility it was a mistake, but if it was they should have known better.

Assuming the property sells for the current asking price, it would be a loss of $67,940 off the 2003 sales price, including 6% sales costs.

60% off in San Juan

60% off...is this the OC or the IE? It's not like we expect this San Juan house to actually sell for this price. But we're still pretty amazed at the discount from the bubble value...

29421 Avocado Ln, San Juan Capistrano, CA 92675
Asking price: $252,000
Asking price/ sq ft: $160
Purchase price: $635,000
Purchase date: 11/29/05
Size: 4 beds, 2 baths, 1,572 sq ft (built in 1974)
MLS: P667849 (78 days on Redfin)
Zillow Zestimate: $379,000
Type: Single Family Residence
Stories: 1
Lot size: 3,445 Sq. Ft.
From listing: House in a very great area and close to ocean and Old San Juan Capistrano.


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To make things a bit weirder, the address is listed in the online Superpages as a business.

Just for kicks, here is the listing description from when it sold in 2005:

WOW!Beautiful and affordable 4 bedroom home near Mission Viejo Shops, Hospital, Capistrano Valley High and Saddleback College. Wood floors, designer carpet,custom paint,scraped ceilings,ceiling fans,updated bathrooms with travertine floors, 2' wood window blinds,and newer roof. Private backyard, enjoy community pools and lakes. Low association dues,low tax rate. Easy access to 5 Freeway and Toll Road. Take Avery Parkway exit, located on the boundary of Mission Viejo and San Juan Capistrano.

Affordable home in this part of San Juan for $639,900 (the final asking price)? LOL. That's hardly affordable in just about any area unless you're dealing with exotic financing.

Assuming the house can sell for the current asking price (chuckle, chuckle), it would mean a loss of $398,120, including 6% sales costs, or a depreciation of 60% not including any costs.

40% off a luxury home in SJC

Redfin tells us this luxury San Juan home has now been on the market for 402 days. But wait! It is now in the "backup offers accepted stage." Will it finally come off the market?

Good timing too, considering it's a preforeclosure...

31441 Paseo Campeon, 92675
Asking price: $985,000
Asking price/ sq ft: $224
Purchase price: $1,632,500
Purchase date: 2/7/06
Size: 4 beds, 4.25 baths, 4,400 sq ft
MLS: S518468 (402 days on Redfin)
Original asking price: $1,575,000
Zillow Zestimate: $1,230,000
HOA dues: $273
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Contemporary/Mediterranean
Stories: 2
Lot size: 7,000 Sq. Ft.
From listing: Tastefully decorated and upgraded from head to toe. Little expense was spared during and after the construction of this home. It's truly a must see for any tempted buyer. Exclusive gated community of Rancho Madrina. Just a short walk to downtown San Juan Capistrano where you can dine, shop, frequent the local farmers market, be entertained at the local movie theater and live theater, visit the historic San Juan Mission or even catch the Amtrak to work or for a weekend getaway and avoid sitting in traffic.

The current owner purchased the property for $1.632 million at the peak of the bubble from William Lyon Homes. She used 80% financing and put $326,700 down. In four months, she refinanced with WaMu - not to pull cash out, since the loan amounts were exactly the same: a $1 million first loan, and a $305,800 second.

What we have, then, is someone who went about things the right way but simply had awful timing. Things got worse in 2008, when a notice of default was filed in May. The notice of trustee sale came in September. The owner had already put the property up for sale in early 2008 asking $1.575 million, which was $57,500 less than she paid.

More than a year later, the asking price was down to $985,000 - an incredible 40% off the previous sales price. Since the property is in the backup offers stage, we are going to assume that WaMu (Chase) might actually let this short sale happen.

If it does, the bank stands to lose $379,900, including 6% sales costs. The owner will lose her $326,700 downpayment, plus anything else she spent upgrading the house after moving in. This real estate investment has proven to be a horrific situation for everyone.

2002 rollback in San Juan

Happy inauguration day! We're cautiously optimistic that the country is ready to turn the corner. Today's property in San Juan last changed hands in June 2008, but it is currently priced below the 2002 sales price.

26277 Via Madrigal, 92675
Asking price: $269,999
Asking price/ sq ft: $227
Purchase price: $383,669
Purchase date: 6/11/08
Size: 3 beds, 3 baths, 1,189 sq ft (built in 1982)
MLS: P671406 (7 days on Redfin)
Zillow Zestimate: $390,000
HOA dues: $230
Type: Condominium
Style: Mediterranean
Stories: 2
From listing: Fabulous 2 Story condo in Casitas Del Rio! Meiterranean style with tile roof, Open and Airy kitchen! New Carpet, Stainless Steel Appliances, Built in Entertainment Center, Wood Flooring, Tile in Bathrooms, New Carpet in Secondary bedrooms, laminant wood flooring in master bedroom. 2 Car Attached garage, shows great!!

The sales and listing history is a little vague - at least we don't know the story - but ZipRealty lists this as a foreclosure. We do see the property has been re-listed and bounced on and off the market a few times recently.

Now, it's priced $1 below the 2002 sales price of $270,000. Coincidentally, 26261 Via Mistral is accepting backup offers. This description says the property includes "pergo flooring throughout downstairs, newer paint, scraped ceilings, new plumbing fixtures and light fixtures, wood shutters..."and more.

The last asking price of this neighboring property was $268,000. So, it appears our subject property is likely worth around the same price. Looks like the asking price is in line with the market.

Considering these properties could rent for perhaps about $1,800 per month (a June 2007 property here that is a bit larger came and left the MLS asking $2,000 per month), we would estimate this property could be near or at rental parity.

Drunken stupor in SJC?

A San Juan property on Laurelwood Lane is up for sale. See if you can figure out a) what the deal is with this photo, and b) why whomever was responsible for this could reasonably feel this image appropriately captures the property for sale:

Yes, this is the only photo posted with the listing. It's been 19 days since this property came on the market. The description isn't so good either - it's in title case and reads: "The Home has Black Galaxy Granite Counter Top in the kitchen. Black Galaxy Granite Floors in Kitchen, Dinning Room, Living Room and downstairs Bedroom. Pantry in Kitchen."

With a $320,000 asking price, the home is being offered at 51% ($329,000) off the peak bubble 2006 price, 37% ($190,000) below the 2004 price and 11% under the 2003 price ($39,500). Stumble over and make your offer today...

Another '03 rollback in San Juan

This San Juan Capistrano property is now for sale for asking below what it went for as a new home back in 2003. We wonder: If you could go back to 2006 - when this property last changed hands - to ask someone which they thought would be less possible: prevalent 2003 rollbacks in South OC real estate, or the Tampa Bay Rays (then Devil Rays) in the World Series, what would they say?

Both of these scenarios are now reality.

26262 Via Corrizo, 92675
Asking price: $495,000
Asking price/ sq ft: n/a
Purchase price: $750,000
Purchase date: 3/7/06
Size: 3 beds, 2.5 baths (built in 2003)
MLS: H08114027 (74 days on Redfin)
Zillow Zestimate: $634,500
HOA dues: $65
Type: Single Family Residence
Stories: 2 Level
From listing: Gated community. .minutes from the beach with mountain view from front porch. .. new hardwood floors. dark cabinetry with granite counters and plenty of cabinets. .. professionally upgraded landscaping. .long driveway. .This is a short pay situation

Customized financial info:
Minimum Income Requirement (using 30Y Fixed): $104,000, assumes no other debt/obligations.
Downpayment needed: $17,325
Monthly Payment on 30Y Fixed at 6.25% with property taxes and mortgage insurance estimated: $3,663.40
Minimum Income Requirement (using 5Y fixed): $99,600, assumes no other debt/obligations.
Monthly Payment on 5Y fixed at 5.80% with property taxes and mortgage insurance estimated: $3,524.64
Disclosure: All rates offered to the client with 1 point cost. Rate quotes assume a purchase transaction with the required minimum down payment, 720 credit score, full income qualification and required reserves. Rates are subject to fluctuation. Custom rate quotes and rate lock advice are available by visiting www.thegreatloan.com.

Looks like an artificially low asking price to us considering 26272 Via Corrizo, which is up for sale for $617,500. ForeclosureRadar says that one is an REO that went back to the bank for $682,166 in July. This other property has two more bedrooms and is larger, but it is bank owned.

If the subject property can be sold for the full asking price, it would mean a loss of $284,700 off the previous sales price, including 6% sales costs. It also would be a decline of 34%, not including sales costs.

'02 rollback Friday

Photo: Washington Mutual Tower in Seattle

Credit: deepblueday

Here are two San Juan Capistrano properties that are 2002 rollbacks. As we've seen so far in this mess, the lower end typically leads the way in terms of pricing, and the higher-end homes tend to eventually follow the same trend.

Obviously, some areas will not fall as far in value as others - but the question is, will 2002 rollbacks become the norm across the board? We have already begun to notice 2003 pricing has become significantly more common in most parts.

On to the brief snapshot of today's subjects:

Property No. 1
27581 Starrise Ln, 92675
Asking price: $300,000
Asking price/ sq ft: $225
Purchase price: $300,000
Purchase date: 10/24/02
Size: 3 beds, 2 baths, 1,332 sq ft (built in 1973)
MLS: S546351 (22 days on Redfin)
Status: Backup Offers Accepted
From listing: Beautiful End Unit Townhome in Desireable area of San Juan Capistrano. Walking distance to Elementary School, Golf Course and Shops. Remodeled kitchen with granite countertops, marble floors. You have to see it!!

Property No. 2
29596 Fairglen Ct, 92675
Asking price: $264,000
Asking price/ sq ft: $246
Purchase price: $432,000
Purchase date: 3/10/05
2002 purchase price: $267,000
Size: 3 beds, 2 baths, 1,071 sq ft (built in 1972)
MLS:S529250 (161 days on Redfin)
Status: Active
From listing: This is a well taken care of HOME from a proud owner with subtle upgrades where hills are to the rear of property. Very private. Very clean, and spacious Living Room. Inside laundry. One car garage with an assigned parking stall adjacent to the garage. Direct garage access into the kitchen. Very roomy!

Serious SJC rollback

Today's must-read story of the day, in case you haven't seen it yet: OC Register reporter John Gittelsohn uncovers some WaMu-enabled real estate fraud.

Our must-see property of the day: this luxury preforeclosure in San Juan. Want futher evidence of why we are in the financial mess we're in now? Look no further than this example.

28171 Calle San Remo, 92675
Asking price: $749,000
Asking price/ sq ft: $246
Purchase price: $1,010,000
Purchase date: 6/22/06
Size: 4 beds, 3 baths, 3,050 sq ft (built in 1978)

MLS: S521408 (224 days on Redfin)

ZipRealty price tracker: Price Reduced: 02/25/08 -- $995,000 to $950,000
Price Reduced: 06/24/08 -- $950,000 to $875,000
Price Reduced: 06/24/08 -- $875,000 to $849,900
Price Reduced: 06/28/08 -- $849,900 to $799,000
Price Reduced: 07/01/08 -- $799,000 to $724,900
Price Reduced: 08/21/08 -- $789,000 to $779,000
Price Reduced: 09/05/08 -- $779,000 to $775,000
Zillow Zestimate: $811,000
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Hacienda
Stories: 2 Levels
Lot size: 10,112 Sq. Ft.
From listing: Unique and awesome Spanish Hacienda home... Remodeled by an Interior Decorator in 2006. Gourmet Granite Kitchen & countertops, solid maple cabintry. Extended family room w/ surround sound & entertainment system. Master suite is a private wing with an oversize master bathroom and retreat. Beautiful romantic evenings w/ master bedroom outdoor living space. Newly custom crafted ceiling fans and light fixtures throughout home. Simply a gorgeous home that will go quickly at this price!! NOTE: This home is already lender approved and can close in 21 days!!!


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It has now been a few weeks since the previous discount - is the asking price now low enough to attract a buyer considering this property is "already lender approved and can close in 21 days!!!" The property has now been reduced seven times for a total reduction of $220,000 off the original asking price of $995,000.

This home - once a million-dollar property - is about as much of a bubble posterchild as you're going to find. Redfin records say this home sold for $662,500 in 2003. In 2006, it changed hands and was sold to a new owner (non-occupant) for $1,010,000. That equates to an increase of 52% in three years.

The new owner utilized 99.8% financing...putting $2,000 down and financing the remaining $1,008,000. About seven months later - in January 2007 - he refinanced into $1,068,750 worth of loans from First Guaranty Financial Corp. Essentially, that means complete downpayment extraction plus $56,750 extra. This happens to be around the time when property values began to plummet.

The property went up for sale in early February. The $900,000 first loan went into default in March, and a notice of trustee sale in the amount of $942,317 was filed in June.

Assuming the property sells for the current asking price, the real loss would be about $365,000, including 6% sales costs. Not including sales costs, it would mean a depreciation of 26%.

2002 rollback in San Juan

Sightings of 2002 rollbacks are still pretty rare in South OC, but this REO property in San Juan hits the mark...

26205 Maplewood Ct, 92675
Asking price: $229,900
Asking price/ sq ft: $175
Bank purchase price: $229,000
Purchase date: 6/25/08
Size: 3 beds, 2 baths, 1,310 sq ft (built in 1971)
MLS: S546538 (6 days on Redfin)
Zillow Zestimate: $368,000
HOA dues: $263
Type: Single Family Residence
Stories: 2 Levels
Lot size: 2,027 sq ft
From listing: Bring your paintbrush and imagination to this one and make it shine! It features a main floor master bedroom suite plus a second master upstairs...and there's a 3rd bedroom. The kitchen features tile floors and counters, oak cabinetry, white appliances with an inside laundry and direct access to your garage! There's a backyard patio for entertaining plus the front door opens onto a grassy greenbelt area with wonderful privacy!

The previous owner used 100% financing when she purchased the property in 2005 for $530,000. The property went into default this February before ending up at the foreclosure auction.

Even though the opening bid amount was discounted almost 50% from the notice of trustee sale amount ($449,801), it went back to the bank at auction. Poor WaMu.

Assuming a sale for the current asking price (we assume there will be more than one bid on this property, unless the inside is so thrashed that it's not worth the repairs), it would mean a depreciation of 57% off the bubble price. It also would be $100 below the 2002 sales price of $230,000.

SJC '03 rollback

Today's property in San Juan is another piece of anecdotal evidence that a growing number of homes in this area have fallen below their 2003 prices. Nope, small condos aren't the only ones hurting any more...

30871 Paseo El Marmol, 92675
Asking price: $365,000
Asking price/ sq ft: $256
Purchase price: $595,000
Purchase date: 8/30/07
Size: 4 beds, 2 baths, 1,425 sq ft (built in 1975)
MLS: S542529 (33 days on Redfin)
ZipRealty price tracker: Price Reduced: 8/11/08 -- $400,000 to $385,000
Price Reduced: 8/22/08 -- $385,000 to $365,000
Zillow Zestimate: $478,000
HOA dues: $50
Type: Single Family Residence
Stories: 2 Levels
Lot size: 5,050 sq ft
From listing: Cozy Single Family Residence with 4 Bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Remodeled kitchen. Garden windows in kitchen area, multiple bay windows on first floor, French doors leading to nice private back yard. Long drive way that can fit extra cars.

Customized financial info (based on previous asking price of $385,000)
Minimum Income Requirement (using 30Y Fixed): $96,000, assumes no other debt/obligations.
Downpayment needed: $11,550
Monthly Payment on 30Y Fixed at 6.375% with property taxes and mortgage insurance estimated: $2,979.84
Minimum Income Requirement (using 5Y fixed): $91,200, assumes no other debt/obligations.
Monthly Payment on 5Y fixed at 5.75% with property taxes and mortgage insurance estimated: $2,829.35
Disclosure: All rates offered to the client with 1 point cost. Rate quotes assume a purchase transaction with the required minimum down payment, 720 credit score, full income qualification and required reserves. Rates are subject to fluctuation. Custom rate quotes and rate lock advice are available by visiting www.thegreatloan.com.

Long driveway to fit extra cars? Hmm...

So the current owner paid close to $600,000 ($418 per sq ft) for a fairly modest, sub-1,500-sq ft property with what looks like an outdated kitchen? Was that really an astute real estate investment? The situation today seems to indicate no.

At least she didn't have to use any of her own money: This was a 100% financing (80/20) deal thanks to Mortgage Electronic.

The property's first loan went into default a little less than nine months after the purchase, in May. The notice of trustee sale was filed in mid-August for $500,537, which is about $24,500 above the original first loan amount of $476,000. The scheduled auction date is Sept. 11.

Assuming the property can be successfully sold for the current asking price, the owner is out nothing and the lender would lose $251,900, including 6% sales costs. It also would mean a sales price $69,000 or 16% below the 2003 sales price of $434,000.

Virtual '03 rollback in SJC

We've been tracking large rollbacks in San Juan Capistrano condos for some time now, but this almost-2003 rollback is a freeway-close, 2,330-sq ft house.

32581 Vivente De Marlita, 92675 Asking price: $565,000
Asking price/ sq ft: $242
Income requirement: $141,250
Purchase price: $560,000
Purchase date: 8/29/03
Size: 3 beds, 3 baths, 2,330 sq ft (built in 2003)
MLS: S538287 (43 days on Redfin)
ZipRealty price tracker: Price Reduced: 8/08/08 -- $578,000 to $565,000
Zillow Zestimate: $846,000
HOA dues: $75
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Spanish
Stories: 2 Levels
Lot size:
From listing: Coastal gated community of newer homes. Light, bright, and open with cathedral ceilings. Eat in kitchen with granite counter tops and tile flooring. Living room/dining room combo plus generous family room with fireplace. Ceiling fans. Balcony off bedroom #2. Jack and jill bath. Upstairs laundry room. Recessed lights. Designer paint. Covered entry porch. Single loaded street. Tropical landscaping with many palms. Bike trail leads to beach. Close to dana point harbor, doheney beach, shopping, and restaurants

This isn't some aging, rundown property in a crumbling neighborhood that's been slashed for a fire sale. It's a nice-looking home that is mostly a product of bad timing.

It appears the property was purchased new back in 2003 from KB Homes. How much additional money was invested in elements like landscaping, interior design and furniture?

Judging by the current asking price, it appears there won't be any appreciation after five years of ownership. There also happens to be an REO on the same street that went back to the bank at the end of July for $586,040.

If our subject house - which is not currently in foreclosure according to ForeclosureRadar- can be sold for the current asking price of $565,000, it would be a price just $5,000 above the original sales price. If we factor in 6% sales costs, it would mean a loss of $28,900.

40% off the '04 price in San Juan

This San Juan Capistrano REO is another example of the accelerating declines various parts of South OC are witnessing this summer. With a spring sales season that appears to be slowing up, what does that foreshadow for the rest of 2008?

If it keeps going on like this, be very afraid...

30896 Calle San Felipe, 92675
Asking price: $339,900
Asking price/ sq ft: $237
Income requirement: $84,975
Bank purchase price: $328,000
Purchase date: 4/7/08
Size: 4 beds, 2 baths, 1,421 sq ft (built in 1971)
MLS: S541124 (2 days on Redfin)
Zillow Zestimate: $441,000
HOA dues: $25
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Mediterranean
Stories: 2 Levels
Lot size: 3,880 sq ft
From listing: Seller put in new carpet and interior paint. 2 bedrooms downstairs and 2 bedroom upstairs. Romantic fireplace in the living room. High ceiling. Good size yard with lots of potential. Direct access garage. Close to schools, park and shops. Only minutes away to San Juan Capistrano Downtown, Mission Basilica church, beaches and Dana Point harbor.


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The notice of trustee sale amount on this property was $516,826 - meaning what was a $480,000 loan swelled more than $35,000 above its original amount because of accrued interest charges and other fees. The lender went on to significantly discount the minimum bid at auction to attract a buyer (generally the minimum bid will be very close to the NTS amount), but even at $328,000 it ended up going back to the bank.

The interior appears to be very workable - particularly by REO standards. Not a bad job at all by the bank in installing carpet and painting.

Judging by comparable properties in San Juan that are currently for rent, we assume you could probably get $2,300 per month for this property. If we were to go by the 160 GRM rule as being a good target for an owner-occupant, they should value this property at about $368,000, which means that at the current asking price, we estimate this would achieve rental parity and would cost either about the same or a bit less each month to own than it would to rent.

That makes this property appear to be a legitimate good buy - though you probably would have to think about how much it would cost to fix up the backyard and make any other necessary changes considering the home is being sold as-is by the bank.

The GRM of this property as it stands with the current asking price is around 148 - good for an owner-occupant, but the price is probably still too high to attract a legitimate cashflow investor.

Assuming the house is sold for the full asking price (though it would not be surprising if it sold for more), it would mean a depreciation of $224,100 or about 40% off the 2004 sales price of $564,000. That is some serious price erosion.

The beating continues in San Juan

Small condos in San Juan are low-hanging fruit in the world of real estate blogging post-bubble, but some of these properties have fallen so far so fast that it's hard not to take a look in every now and then to see what's happening.

Here's an example of one that's selling for $156 per square foot. It's also more than 50% off the bubble-inflated price of just three years ago.

26462 Calle San Francisco #53e, 92675
Asking price: $178,900
Asking price/ sq ft: $156
Income requirement: $44,725
FB purchase price: $406,500
Purchase date: 1/26/05
Size: 2 beds, 2 baths, 1,145 sq ft (built in 1971)
MLS: S538367 (2 days on Redfin)
Zillow Zestimate: $401,500
2007 property tax: $4,346
HOA dues: $230
Type: Condominium
Stories: 1 Level
From listing: 3 bedrooms with 2 baths and 2 car garage on a corner lot.

This property sold for $100,000 in 1989 - right before the 90s decline - using FHA financing. Redfin/Zillow show us this place sold for $406,500 in 2005.

Judging by properties on the MLS for rent, we would estimate you probably could be able to rent it out for around $1,350-$1,400 per month - assuming you put in a little money and did the necessary cosmetic fixes.

If we were to look at this property from an owner-occupant point of view and wanted to hit a GRM of 160, then we would value this property at about $216,000, if we assume rental value of $1,350 per month. Rental parity: Check.

But, it is unlikely an owner-occupant would want to occupy this type of space long term, so we would think this property could be appealing to a cashflow investor, if the price were right. As the property is priced now, the GRM is around 133. Not bad, but perhaps not quite low enough.

Take a closer look at the asking price of $178,900. It's $227,600 or 56% below the peak "value" in 2005. If the property sells for the current asking price, it also would mean the condo would have increased in value by a reasonable 3.1% every year since 1989.