New blog in town

First, let us admit we are horrifically awful people who haven't checked out and responded to e-mail nearly as often as we should. That ends now, so please go right ahead and hit us up at southoctracker (at) live.com with anything that's on your mind. We've received many a cool item and tip off about interesting properties from our readers, and we're going to post more of those going forward.

We also wanted to give a shout out to the Coto Housing Blog...it's a relatively new local blog with a lot of potential. And, since we're sure there are plenty of shenanigans going on out there to keep anyone occupied for quite some time, we look forward to reading more.

Make sure to head on over there and show your support!

Redfin OC blog: It's alive (again)!

When Redfin recently announced it decided to alter its Sweet Digs OC blog, shifting from more conversational, analytical posts to focus more on hard data, we were curious to see what would come of it. Today we have been treated to the first new post, which analyzes cities and neighborhoods in Orange County that have seen the fewest and most listings with price reductions.

Here is the graphic from the Redfin blog of "Orange County Cities/Towns with the Most Reduced-Price Listings (before being sold or removed from the market)". Whew, what a title! But, we get it...we think.

Now, the same thing but in reverse - areas with not a lot of listings with price reductions:

The data is further broken down into which neighborhoods' listings have had the fewest and most price reductions. We're not going to post all of them here, but they are certainly worth checking out.

So, what does it all mean? We thought we might have a clue after seeing the first two charts - makes sense that listing prices in expensive areas would need to start coming down as credit troubles have moved upward to inflict borrowers in higher-priced areas and tax brackets.

Then, it also would make sense that Lake Forest and Santa Ana would be on the list of least price reductions, because those areas have a lot of foreclosures and other distressed properties. Those tend to be priced aggressively from the start and don't need much adjusting to find a buyer. Is Irvine on that second list because the Kool-Aid is still flowing mightily up there? Could be.

That's our non-sensical two cents . We do know this, though: Keep that local data coming, Redfin.

Second that

Irvine Renter over at the Irvine Housing Blog had a great post today called "IHB Privacy Policy." We'd like to draw your attention to the top of it because its perspective mirrors that of this site.

In short:
1. We do not use names. As Irvine Renter said, specific people are irrelevant. It's the property and the financing behind it that tells us the real story. We are interested in trends, not people.
2. We post information from the public record. On this site, we use ForeclosureRadar.com for financial and foreclosure information, which in turn comes straight from the public record.
3. The information is accurate. A blog (or news site, for that matter) is only as strong as its commitment to the truth. That being said, everyone makes mistakes. If we do, we will fix it ASAP.

Those three came from IHB. I'd like to add three more items, though they're more under the heading of "full disclosure and philosophy" than "privacy policy":

1. We do not work in real estate, nor do we profit or lose from its fluctuations. We have an education in real estate, but we aren't in the industry and don't make any money whether it appreciates or crashes.
2. We're local. We grew up in South Orange County. We live in South Orange County. We like it here. No place is perfect, but this is just fine for us. Bubble behavior was shocking, but at the end of the day we still think this is a great place to live - though things certainly have changed in the past number of years. As home prices become more affordable, we feel this will increase the desirability of the area.
3. We want to inform...and entertain. Knowledge and information are power, particularly in the 21st century. The Internet is a great thing. We enjoy contributing our (very) small piece to the collective local real estate knowledge. Consumers deserve a chance to be educated and informed when making what for many is the largest purchase of their lives.

Freaky Friday

Another week has come and is now almost over. Wells Fargo snatched Wachovia from Citigroup's grasp. And, our representatives in the House may be on the verge of passing a historic bailout bill - complete with a super helping of pork. Without its passage, California could very well be freaking doomed.

Phew. Speaking of oddities...how about a 1988 rollback? It's an update of a property we chronicled before.

23004 Ditz Lane, 92630
Asking price (then): $269,900
Asking price (now): $88,000
Bank purchase price: $248,940
Bank purchase date: 3/6/08
Size: 2 beds, 1 bath, 912 sq ft (built in 1972)
Old MLS: U8001820
New MLS: S541315 (72 days on Redfin)
Listing description (then): Single-story ground level end unit in nice neighborhood. Enclosed patio, two-car garage and lots of windows --- shows light and bright.
Listing description (now): Single story home in Lake Forest. This home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, a 2 car garage, a family room, and enclosed patio. Cosmetic repairs needed. Located as an end unit in a great neighborhood. Home has plenty of potential.

This property sold for $415,000 at the peak in 2005. At the current asking price of $88,000 (original asking price was $219,900), it represents a 79% decline from the peak. The asking price also is $17,000 below the June 1988 price of $105,000.

Long-coming Laguna update

A reader alerted us that 1089 Miramar - a property we mentioned a long ways back in a post about whether Laguna Beach is actually immune from the aftereffects of the real estate bubble - has sold.

Only took about 10 months. Previous sales price in 2005 was $1,195,000. This is what the listing description said:

Value....Value....Value....Expansive Ocean Views!!! Complelety Remodeled And Updgraded. Dramatic Gourmet Kitchen, Granite Travertine Flooring, Custom Fireplace And Open Living Area Highlights This Laguna Beach Residence. Wrought Iron Railing,Dark Wood Stairs & Cathedral Ceilings Add To The Ambience Of This Property. Bathrooms Feature Custom Touches Including Tumbled Marble. Enjoy Outdoors On The View Deck And Private Backyard.

Redfin says the sales price this time was $1 million - 16% off the previous sales price.

Where are they now?

Photo credit: Mastery of Maps

In Early July, we updated you on some of the properties we'd featured on the blog. Today we're going to do the same with some more homes...

15 Amarante, Laguna Niguel, 92677
Asking price: $589,000
Previous purchase price: $810,000
Previous purchase date: 4/30/05
Profile date: 3/31
It appears the previous owner averted foreclosure and got this one successfully sold. Props to all involved, particularly the buyer, who snagged a Marina Hills house for almost a third off the peak price.
Status: SOLD for $560,000 on Aug. 1 - 5% below asking price and 31% off the peak 2005 price

21916 Birchwood, Mission Viejo, 92692
Asking price: $475,000
Peak purchase price: $600,000
Peak purchase date: 10/22/04
Profile date: 4/3
Based on the Redfin sales history data, it appears the house was REO when it hit the market in April. If that were the case, the bank had no trouble attracting a buyer.
Status: SOLD for $476,500 on June 3 - just above the asking price and 21% below the 2004 price.

1170 Miramar Street, Laguna Beach, 92651
Asking price: $1,100,876
Previous purchase price: $1,095,000
Previous purchase date: 2/15/07
Profile date: 4/6 and 1/18
A reader updated us that the property - a short sale approved by the lender at $830,000 - had been saved from foreclosure one day before it was to be auctioned off. That's exactly what happened.
Status: SOLD for $830,000 on April 2 - 24% off the 2007 price.

29112 Pompano Way, Laguna Niguel, 92677
Asking price: $449,900
Peak purchase price: $775,000
Peak purchase date: 12/1/04
Profile date: 4/8
This property - formerly an REO - changed hands a number of times during the real estate bubble. Perhaps the latest owner will hold onto it for a while.
Status: SOLD for $510,000 - $60,100 above the asking price and 42% below the (suspect) peak price.

Closing the loop...

In today's post, we're going to update you on the fate of some of the properties we've featured in the past few months.

29432 Kensington Dr, Laguna Niguel, 92677
Asking price: $635,000
Previous purchase price: $1,089,000
Previous purchase date: 12/28/06
Profile date: 2/28
This house was priced 42% below its 2006 price. As you can imagine, there was plenty of buyer interest.
Status: SOLD for $750,000 - 18% above the asking price and 31% below peak value

21591 Partridge Street, Trabuco Canyon, 92679
Asking price: $899,000
Previous purchase price: $1,133,000
Previous purchase date: 6/12/06
Profile date: 2/25
We noted a blurry photo on this listing that shouldn't be within 50 feet of a property with this kind of price tag. If a buyer was located and the sale could have closed, this one would have been nearly a $300,000 loss.
Status: FORECLOSURE - Back to the bank on March 18 for $890,964. We believe this property is still sitting as an REO and has not come back on the market yet.

25731 Morales, Mission Viejo, 92691
Asking price: $694,900
Previous purchase price: $849,043
Previous purchase date: 8/6/07
Profile date: 3/17
This property went for $1 million in 2006 before becoming a foreclosure in 2007.
Status: SOLD for $634,500 - 9% below the asking price and 37% off the peak price

31421 Paseo Diosa, San Juan, 92675
Asking price: $1,475,000
Purchase price: $1,648,000
Purchase date: 6/20/06
Profile date: 3/12
The owners bought the property new from William Lyon Homes at the peak of the market. They have been chasing it down ever since.
Status: PREFORECLOSURE, STILL ON MARKET - The listing is still active, though a notice of default was filed at the end of March. The current asking price is $1.275 million, which is $373,000 below the previous sales price.

25711 Califia Drive, Laguna Hills, 92653
Asking price: $449,900
Bank purchase price: $386,385
Bank purchase date: 12/19/07
Profile date: 2/16
This property, which appears to be a former flip, went REO when we profield it in February. It sold for $660,000 at the peak in September 2005.
Status: SOLD for $450,000 - 32% off the peak price

UPDATE: Yes, a failed flip in Laguna Niguel

We posted in late February about 24171 La Hermosa, a property in Laguna Niguel that looked like it was a flip heading for failure. To recap:

Asking price: $575,000 (now $550,000)
Asking price/ sq ft: $353 (now $338)
Purchase price: $750,000
Purchase date: 11/13/06
Size: 4 beds, 2 baths, 1,628 sq ft (built in 1966)
MLS: S503764 (178 days on Redfin) - now 232 days
ZipRealty price tracker: Price Reduced: 09/17/07 -- $899,900 to $839,900
Price Reduced: 09/25/07 -- $839,900 to $829,900
Price Reduced: 10/18/07 -- $829,900 to $799,900
Price Reduced: 11/13/07 -- $799,900 to $650,000
Price Reduced: 12/21/07 -- $650,000 to $599,900
Price Reduced: 02/25/08 -- $599,900 to $575,000
Now: Price Reduced: 04/08/08 -- $575,000 to $550,000
Description: This property has been completely remodeled.Granite counter top in the kitchen with a serving bar.Office area or eating area opens to the backyard.Beautiful tile flooring throughout.Newly painted,cozy fire place in the family room with french doors opening to the back yard.Newly painted interior,crown molding throughout.New cabinetry in the kitchen.Both bathrooms have been redone with new flooring and fixtures. Move in condition very light and bright.Close to the freeway,shops,park and restaurants.

Here are the details behind the transaction. It's easy to see how things went wrong.

11/13/06: Purchased for $750,000 with 95% financing from Greenpoint Mortgage Funding.
12/5/07: Notice of default filed on $600,000 1st mortgage, delinquent amount of $21,343 (property had been on the market for a little more than three months at this point)
3/13/08: Notice of trustee sale filed, sale amount established at $635,818. Property is scheduled for auction May 16.

It also looks like there may be some issues with unpaid property taxes, too.

Assuming the property is able to be sold for the full asking price, the loss would be $233,000, including 6% sales costs. And, remember, we don't know how much additional money was spent rehabbing the property.

UPDATE: 13% discount in Laguna Beach

A reader tipped us off that the Laguna Beach property featured in this December post did, in fact, sell.

Zillow pegs the sale on Feb. 5, at a price of $1,025,000. Considering the sale amount is less than the seller paid (and the times we are in) it is not out of the realm of possibility that this in fact ended up going back to the bank.

Assuming 6% sales costs, the loss on this sale would have been $286,500. In Laguna Beach. What immunity?

Info from original post:
Asking price: $1,090,000
Asking price/ sq ft: $662
Income requirement: $272,500
Purchase price: $1,250,000
Purchase date: 6/20/2005
Size: 3 beds, 2 baths, 1,646 sq ft (built in 1948)

ZipRealty price tracker: Price Reduced: 3/17/07 -- $1,375,000 to $1,299,999
Price Reduced: 8/25/07 -- $1,299,999 to $1,199,999
Price Reduced: 11/26/07 -- $1,199,999 to $1,090,000
2006 property tax: $13,814
Type: Single Family Residence

Stories: Two Levels
Lot size: 5,810 sq ft
From listing: Two story open floor plan, kitchen has granite counters and stainless steel appliances, masterbath has walk-in closet, marble counters, spa tub and seperate large stone shower. Hardwood floors in most of the house. Cozy fireplace, french doors leading to a sprawling deck with small ocn and wooded view. Large storage shed and spacious yard with carport for 4 cars and boat parking on the side. Walk to town, beach and high school.