It hasn't been too long since we posted the last home stats, but here we go. Today's in the OC Register via DataQuick cover the 21 business days ending Oct. 21.
Sales volume is obviously above year-ago levels, but remember it is still below historical averages. And this is in the face of the fastest, largest value declines the area has ever seen.
Friday, November 07, 2008
South OC home stats: Oct 21
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2 comments:
Yes as well you have to consider that "X" percent of these sales so far are short or REO, not "organic" sales. I think average for Sept runs about 3500 units. Take out the 40% distressed sales and you get a very low sales environment.
In the future appreciation will be what you give to other people, not what you earn by sitting in your home.
I think we are on the edge of the end of the sales declines in the "better" areas. The caveat: I am talking specifically about homes close to the beach in areas that have not seen much turnover since 2003. Seems to me that the majority of people who must sell in these areas have either faced the cold harsh reality and listed/sold - or have been foreclosed on already. The remaining homeowners with toxic loans/underwater situations may very well see some form of loan mod either direct from the lender or via the lender and imposed by the incoming administration. The net result will be the same - people not putting homes on the market and not being forced to sell (via foreclosure). Even if interest rates go up - the general admission by the incoming administration to "save" peoples' homes will ensure that all will be done to modify loans to ridiculous ends. This will have some stabilizing effect on the overall prices, as would-be sellers will hesitate to sell their homes based on the principal reductions and loan modifications of neighbors.
I could be very wrong - but it seems like the beach areas (block or so from the beach, low turnover last five years) are, for the most part, just not budging in the last month or so.
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