Perhaps some of the lower-end is nearing a price bottom in South OC - at least one would think so considering there are properties out there already that appear to be well on the way to surpassing rental breakeven.
But we believe the high end still has a ways to go. Case in point: Endless Vis in Aliso Viejo (the Oakview tract of Westridge). Three years ago these properties were going for well over $1 million, and one sold for $1.225 million that August.
Today, different story.
We noticed Straight Digs recently had this to say about the high-end in Aliso Viejo (their emphasis): "Finally, the million dollar market in Aliso Viejo has suffered the most in the last couple of years. Neither October 2007 nor October 2008 saw a home sell for over $1.0 million in the city. In October 2008 the highest sale was $810,000."
Five properties on this street are active and for sale in the MLS. Four of these five are short sales. Two of those are going through foreclosure. The fifth is an REO.
Here is a breakdown of what's active and for sale:
63 Endless Vis (pictured at top)
Status: Short sale, notice of trustee sale recorded in September. Auction date in early December.
Asking price: $855,000
Original asking price: $1,075,000
Previous sales price: $462,500
Sale date: 8/24/00
Note: Repeat refinancing is the problem here. There was $950,000 worth of debt on the property in 2006. NTS amount is for significantly more than the original loan balance.
71 Endless Vis
Status: Going through foreclosure, notice of trustee sale recorded in October. Scheduled for auction in late December.
Asking price: $950,000
Original asking price: $875,000
Previous sales price: $1,225,000
Sale date: 8/8/05
Note: The current owner used 95% financing to purchase the home during the bubble and then proceeded to add on more debt. There was $1.24 million in loans against this property by September 2006.
78 Endless Vis
Status: Short sale
Asking price: $870,000
Original asking price: $1,299,000
Previous sales price: $1,150,000
Sale date: 4/7/05
Note: A successful sale at this price would mean a loss of $332,200, including 6% sales costs.
81 Endless Vis
Status: Short sale
Asking price: $1,000,000
Original asking price: $1,189,000
Previous sales price: $550,500
Sale date: 12/6/00
Note: It's obvious that there was some major refinancing here - otherwise the owner(s) would have been completely fine since they purchased back in 2000.
109 Endless Vis
Status: REO
Asking price: $650,000
Original asking price: $650,000
Previous sales price: $1,021,677 (back to the bank at auction)
Sale date: 9/8/08
Note: Not to sound like a broken record, but repeat refinancing did the trick. The previous owners bought in 2000 using a loan around $400,000, but ended up with $1.139 million in loans from Wells Fargo by early 2007.
What's perhaps most scary about this situation? Notice the previous sales prices (the REO sales price is just the property transferring to the bank at auction).
Three of the five were purchased back in 2000, when this was a new community. There is no reason they should have ended up as they did, except the allure of "free money" was too strong. Not only are these borrowers in serious danger of losing their homes, they're taking down neighborhood values along with them.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
What high end in Aliso?
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
10 comments:
Wow, 109 is a killer. If the bank really lets it go at $650, that brings everything back to 2001, and every other house on the street represents a $500k loss to the banks.
$650k--bait for bids, or a price that the bank will take?
FreedomCM
Well, $650k must be a lot lower than the total defaulting first mortage; unless this property has a HUGE second. The bank obviously doesn't think this property is worth anywhere near $1,000k. $650k is probably close to what they will accept - a real comp killerr
Oops, I misread the previous sales line - ignore the last comment.
109 is a bait price, but closer to reality. Too bad the REALTARD did not take the time to photograph the property properly. If it sells for $750k at 2% to the selling REALTARD he gets about $14k net/net. One would think that $14k commish would allow them to perhaps upgrade from an instamatic to a digital camera.
78 sold in 2000 for $520k. Using the USG inflation calculator the price today is $654k. Sell at $700k and you've made a reasonable profit, close to market. With the 109 comp killer on the market me thinks that all of these will sell between $700 and $800k. With a $625k max conforming loan, you've got to have alot of juice to put down and most of that is gone what with the financial crisis we are in.
As a former Southern California resident, I still don't see how $650K for a medium size home on a postage stamp lot right next to a 4 lane road is any kind of deal. Lots of downside left here I would say. If the bailouts are based upon this kind of home pricing, then the bailout is not going to be enough.
I used to live in this neighborhood.
Wood Canyon is fairly quiet, as there is little back in the Wood Canyon area except for some tracts. Boundary Oak is positively dead most of the time.
There is a big difference between the south/north side of the street, as the view lots will command a premium. 109 is not a view lot.
By the looks of these prices, 2000/2001 prices were already high, but it's a desirable area. With that said, rents are going to be cheaper than buying unless you plan to stay 15 or 20 years. At which rate, you might as well buy. Rents in that area are falling due to falling rents all around that area and the Lending Bust. I'm confident we've got net outmigration.
Any way you look at it, it does not yet make sense to buy there.
Chuck
I like this one better esse because its only $98K. Later Homes.
Signed, Sleepy your neighborhood illegal alien gang banger
http://tinyurl.com/6lt6m7
Wow, that's nutty. The prices are still quite high though. I wonder how much longer it will take for it to decrease and when will that be?
I know several people who live in this neighborhood. It is nice, but you are still in Aliso Viejo (far isolated from everything). These comp killers will destroy what is left. After reading this article, it all makes sense. Many people in this neighborhood lived far above their means, this is coming to an ugly, bloody end for sooner than most expected.
I bet the unscupulous realtor that lives on that street is having a fit...what goes around....
Post a Comment