We know Steve Thomas gets some grief for not having his spread sheet columns add up correctly, but we'll give him the benefit of the doubt today. Last year at about this time, there were 4,714 properties in South OC for sale on Thomas' report. His list also showed 720 properties in escrow. That would mean a "market time" of about 6 and a half months. Of the properties for sale, 29% were either short sales or foreclosures.
The areas in April 2008 where distressed properties made up at least 50% of the market:
- Lake Forest - 57.4%
Still not a healthy market.
Want some additional proof? Here are the areas in April 2009 where distressed properties made up more than 50% of the market. The number of areas in this category is up 500%.
- Foothill Ranch - 72.7%
- Lake Forest - 64.0%
- Aliso Viejo - 62.7%
- RSM - 61.2%
- Ladera Ranch - 51.3%
- Talega - 50.6%
5 comments:
Hmmm. All of the areas except Lake Forest have Mello Roos taxes and high associations. These areas were bought into by young families who felt "entitled" to move into upgraded dream homes. Reality has a way of biting us all doesn't it. I guess if they all would have bought older, smaller starter homes in less affluent areas based on what they could really afford our economy would not be headed toward another Great Depression.
I'm not sure southern California "qualifies" as being eligible for ever becoming a "healthy housing market". The state budget deficit, higher income taxes, unemployment and increased job uncertainty support this fact to some extent.
Wouldn't a "healthy housing market" be one where the privalege of renting was appropriately more expensive (you don't pay property taxes, you can pick up and leave whenever you want, you owe no maintainance) and owning a home was less expensive (because you must maintain the home, pay property taxes, etc.)?
I'll close by saying that the available single family homes in LF are all medium to poor quality. They are mostly run-down, fixer up foreclosures. There are a few in decent shape, but those are priced at Candyland pricing of $600K plus.
Thanks for your blog. southern California "qualifies" is being eligible for ever becoming a "healthy housing market".
Can anyone associated with RE write a legible sentence?
I think what we are experiencing now is the first "dead cat bounce". People are rushing in thinking the bottom is here and its really NOT. After the $8K fed stimulus is gone (you must close by Dec 1) and increased tax rates on income and purchases, unemployment increases all this spells more downward movement in this housing market.
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