Here are the DataQuick stats for the month of May, as reported in today's OC Register.
As you can see from the data, both the median price and number of sales in South OC were way down from year-ago levels. That's particularly discouraging considering how many properties have been severely discounted from peak pricing.
However, there is some reason to be a bit optimistic. A handful of ZIPs have shown increased sales, and either are above or very close to last year's numbers. Those include Mission Viejo (92691), Laguna Niguel (92677) and San Clemente (92672).
During the earlier stages of the 1990s bust, there were a few spurts of activity that led to bottom-calling speculation. There has not been anything quite like that this time considering year-over-year sales numbers have been down for quite some time.
There have been reports of increase pending sales. Once those translate to closed sales (if they do), then perhaps we will begin having more widespread bottom-calling arguments again.
We would encourage you, though, to keep an eye on the foreclosure numbers, because they are also a predictor of what the market will look like in the future. Since we are having record levels of foreclosures, and more distressed homes are appearing on the market, there is no indication that a quick turnaround is at hand.
In fact, what it is showing right now is that the OC real estate market will continue to be overwhelmed with foreclosures and short sales for some time.
Sunday, June 22, 2008
South OC home stats, May
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2 comments:
I've heard that the foreclosure numbers aren't as bad as they seem because a notice of default can be filed on a first mortgage and a second mortgage on the same property. How much truth is there to the claim that foreclosure numbers seem high because some NODs are counted twice for the same property?
It's certainly possible that multiple NODs can be filed on the same property. In my experience looking around South OC, this is not too common, though - but that doesn't necessarily mean this isn't the case.
The "typical" foreclosure I come across, if there is even close to such a thing, is a property bought in 2004-2006 with lots of financing. Or, it's a longer-term owner with multiple re-fis, HELOCs or stand-alone seconds.
I've also found it rare that NODs are filed both on the first and second loans at the same time. Almost always it is on the first alone. Not to say it doesn't happen, though.
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