Will they or won't they?

There has been a slew of "good news" recently about the local real estate market:

• County home sales totaled more than 2,000 for the first time since the credit crunch
• "Market time" falls more, under 6 months
  

Then, there is the bad news:

• Foreclosures hit a record high in April; don't appear to be slowing down
  
• The % of distressed inventory is up 8.8% countywide
  

And, don't forget the bad news in the good news: Sales numbers for April were up month-over-month compared to March, but down year-over-year and down significantly from historical April averages. Close the book on April, and we'll see what happens in May.

Here are some notable short sales in the "backup offers accepted" phase we wonder will actually make it to closing considering the large disparity between the last asking price and the purchase price. Remember, from what we have seen, an exceedingly large percentage of properties purchased during the bubble were done with large amounts of financing. Most people could never really afford the rising prices; they were just allowed to finance more.

All also are in the $400k asking price range:

24731 Embajadores Ln, MV, 92691
Asking price: $474,900
Previous purchase price: $786,000
Date: 11/15/05
Size: 4 beds, 2 baths, 1,700 sq ft
Potential loss*: $339,594
% decline (not incl sales costs): 40%

24351 Registry Ct, LN, 92677
Asking price: $439,900
Previous purchase price: $583,000
Date: 8/31/05
Size: 3 beds, 3 baths, 1,509 sq ft
Potential loss: $169,494
% decline: 25%


29 Jasmine Creek Ln, LH, 92653
Asking price: $417,000
Previous purchase price: $660,000
Date: 3/30/07
Size: 3 beds, 3 baths, 1,593 sq ft
Potential loss: $268,020
% decline: 37%

76 Paseo Vis, SC, 92673
Asking price: $485,000
Previous purchase price: $585,000
Date: 5/19/05
Size: 3 beds, 2 baths, 1,300 sq ft
Potential loss: $129,100
% decline: 17%

17 Monticello Ln, RSM, 92688
Asking price: $499,000
Previous purchase price: $620,000
Date: 12/01/05
Size: 4 beds, 3 baths, 1,600 sq ft
Potential loss: $150,940
% decline: 20%

The other pattern we've noticed is that properties headed for escrow also include a handful of foreclosures, as well as a bunch with owners cashing out who have held their properties for a very long time.

* - "Best-case" scenario that assumes the possibility of a completed sale for the full asking price, minus 6% sales costs.