The Hamptons in Aliso Viejo is a neighborhood of detached condos that was built right around the bottom of the 1990s real estate downturn in Orange County. The original owners paid anywhere from about $145,000 to $175,000 to buy in when these properties were offered new.
The upsides of the tract include the fact that many of the houses are visually appealing from the exterior, and they feel like single family homes even though they are officially classified as detached condos.
Downsides are the lack of driveways, and the development's narrow streets; typical Aliso Viejo packed-in feel as well in parts. And, the address numbering system is a joke (what is with the 1 Ryley Ct #15 thing?) . We've actually asked real estate agents before about this, and some aren't even sure what the deal is, other than it is the way the addresses were legally numbered. Soleil - also in Aliso Viejo - is guilty of this awkward system as well.
As with just about every neighborhood in the area, this one saw some extraordinarily high appreciation and turned in some high-priced sales during the bubble years, including these:
- 8 Avon Ct - 3 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,300 sq ft, sold for $494,000 on 9/1/04 ($380/sq ft)
- 4 Ashbury Ct - 3 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,400 sq ft, sold for $572,500 on 10/18/05 ($409/sq ft).
- 8 Constance Ct - 3 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,600 sq ft, sold for $602,500 on 4/21/06 ($377/sq ft)
- 1 Ryley Ct #15 - a fixer, 3 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,400 sq ft, sold for $542,000 on 7/22/04 ($387/sq ft)
- 3 Haley Ct #31- 4 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,600 sq ft, sold for $600,000 on 4/1/05 ($375/sq ft)
So, it looks like on average these properties were going for somewhere around $375-$390 during the bubble years.The glut of properties that have recently come up for sale in this neighborhood is surprising - and it seems it is still growing. With the addition of another property for sale in the past couple days, we counted at least 10 that are now showing up as available on the MLS, including:
- 3 Sydney Ct - 3 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,533 sq ft, short sale/comp killer asking $399,000-$420,000. Paid $565,000 in 2006. Potential best-case loss of $189,940, including 6% sales costs. Possible 29% decline.
- 1 Sherrelwood Ct - 4 beds, 3 baths, 1,550 sq ft. Asking $499,000. Paid $575,000 at the peak. Chasing the market down from original asking price of $519,000. Best-case loss of $105,940. This is the second-highest-priced listing in the tract.
- 7 Ryley Ct #18 - 2 beds + loft, 3 baths, 1,300 sq ft, asking $449,900 ($346/sq ft). Previous sale of $310,500 in 2002 - not a short sale, just bad timing. Has chased the market down for 74 days from asking price of $474,900. Potential profit of $112,406.
- 11 East Southside Ct - 3 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,300 sq ft. Paid $305,000 in 2002. Asking $469,995, which would translate to a potential profit of $136,795.30.
- 7 Chatham Ct - 3 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,300 sq ft. Asking $449,900. Paid $517,500 in 2005. Offering $3,000 towards buyers closing costs. Potential best-case loss of $94,594.
4 Ashbury Court is an interesting one because it is for sale now for $475,000. That asking price is $97,500, or 17%, off the peak.
3 Haley Court is also showing as for sale, asking $519,000, which is $81,000 off the previous price. That would make it the highest-priced listing in the tract. The MLS number isn't showing up in Redfin, though.
Recent sales are few and far between. 6 Astoria Court - a 2-bedroom + loft, 2.5 bath property sold for $467,000 in late 2007 - $14,000 below the 2004 price. And, 3 Soho Court #38 is now taking backup offers. It was asking $430,000, which was (not coincidentally) one of the lower prices in the complex. A successful sale for the full asking price would set the value at 22% below the previous sale.
The relative lack of recent sales makes it hard to determine what types of value declines this neighborhood is witnessing, though it is probably a little more than 20% to this point. With the amount of supply in this neighborhood and relatively meager sales activity, it appears there will be continued downward pressure on prices here in the near future.
On the flip side, though - if you love this neighborhood and feel you want to buy now, you've got plenty of properties to choose from.
6 comments:
I know someone bought an unit in this complex 2 bedrooms, 2 baths and a loft in 2003 for $335K.
And someone else in the neighborhood bought about the same time, assuming with the same price range with a fix rate loan. Then this second person in 2005, sold her house to buy another one in the same complex for about above $575 with an exotic loan.
I didn't ask for details. I was just listening. The first one, an engineer, was in disbelief and was trying to explain to the second person that what she is doing is very risky but the second person didn't care.. Her response was "I can afford the monthly payment and I want a view" ....(the old one didn't have a view). The second person does nails for living. Of course, the first person gave up at the end .... because if house price kept going up then the house with a view would gain big....
I have no further contact with the first person so I don't know what is happening after the loan is reset ...
That's an interesting story - thanks for sharing. It is unfortunate what is happening in that neighborhood, because anyone who purchased in 2004 or later likely has a home worth less than they paid.
When I drive Wood Canyon and look down on the rooftops of these sardine can s-boxes with no driveways and no parking, I think....yuuukkk. 200k tops.
Aliso Viejo is full of these very types of neighborhoods. The entire town is one giant HOA - services have been declining for some time, people who can't pay mortgages also can't pay their HOA fees. Parts of the town have some serious crime issues; some communities, 'cuz many are in the hills - have serious drainage issues (mould; slab leaks). The Laguna Audubon is a perfect example of water-related disasters waiting to happen & HOAs going broke.
As I look down that street, all I can think is, who is going to hit a house with a car?
I bought one of these new. Paid 146K in 1995 sold for 233k 5 years later. They were built cheap, they are very small, and way too close together.
Parking is nearly impossible. The up side is they are there cheapest single family homes in AV. Built by Western Pacific AKA Western Pile of S**T! Remember the rule of really low prices, you get what you pay for.
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