Pending sales in Laguna Niguel

I'm going to start regularly posting on pending sales around South County to give you an idea of what's moving in this slow real estate market. Today, we're looking at some sample properties in Laguna Niguel (92677 ZIP), which is showing 16 pending sales.

Keep in mind though that it's not uncommon in today's shaky lending environment for deals to fall apart at the last minute because of financing issues (among other reasons). So, there is no guarantee all of these will make it all the way to closing.

28571 La Alcala
Size: 3 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,360 sq ft
Last asking price: $579,900
Previous purchase price: $445,000
Purchase date: 8/8/03
Potential profit/loss*: $100,106


27943 Via Del Agua
Size: 3 beds, 2 baths, 1,609 sq ft
Last asking price: $519,500
Prev. purchase price: $187,000
Purchase date: 9/15/94
Profit/loss: $301,330


29546 Teracina
Size: 4 beds, 4 baths, 2,792 sq ft (REO)
Last asking price: $799,900
Prev. purchase price: $1,000,000 (looks like a refi)
Purchase date: 2/2/05
Profit/loss: $-248,094


23740 Sea Breeze Ln #19
Size: 3 beds, 2 baths, 944 sq ft
Last asking price: $324,900
Prev. purchase price: $460,000
Purchase date: 11/15/05
Profit/loss: $-154,594


25961 Montemar #69
Size: 3 beds, 2 baths, 1,101 sq ft
Last asking price: $304,900
Prev. purchase price: $440,000
Purchase date: 4/7/06
Profit/loss: $-153,394


2 Leicester
Size: 4 beds, 3.5 baths, 3,120 sq ft
Last asking price: $1,489,000
Prev. purchase price: $467,000
Purchase date: 8/15/96
Profit/loss: $932,660


* - Profit/loss assumes sale for the full asking price, minus 6% transaction costs. This is probably the best-case scenario in terms of profit - or the least-bad-case scenario in case of a loss.

The moral of the story is completely non-surprising: Buy and hold for a while and you'll be fine. Buy at bubble pricing and you lose.