Monday, January 28, 2008

Let's play...Match Game

OK, so this isn't really like the real Match Game. Here, we're matching stories from the real estate downturn of the 90s with eerily similar ones that have come out recently. All of the old stories are from the OC Register archives. Enjoy...

Today's story: OC real estate/finance jobs at 33-month low
Date: Jan. 21, 2008
"Orange County’s real estate and related finance businesses lost 14,200 jobs in the year ended last month, putting employment in this niche at 245,000 workers, the lowest level since March 2005." ...

Yesterday's story: OC real estate slump putting thousands of sellers out of jobs
Date: Jan. 15, 1991
"As many as 5,000 people have dropped out of the home-selling business in Orange County during the past year, according to reports from local real estate associations and the state trade group's employment estimate for 1991." ...

The connection: Professionals in real estate-related jobs are either leaving or being forced out of the industry.

Today's story: Lennar loses $1.25B in Q4
Date: Jan. 25, 2008
"Orlando's third largest production homebuilder posted a $1.25 billion fourth quarter loss, as its home deliveries and new home orders fell by half." ...

Yesterday's story: J.M. Peters reports loss of $7 million
Date: Dec. 22, 1990
"Home builder J.M. Peters Co. on Friday issued its weakest quarterly report since becoming a public company in 1986, reflecting a downturn in home sales and added costs from trying to sell its existing inventory." ...

The connection: Homebuilders are suffering big time as demand from buyers wanes.

Today's story: Humbled Homesellers
Date: Jan. 20,2008
..."It's a story about bad timing and bad luck – a tale of woe that many 2007 home sellers are telling after enduring the slowest housing market in at least two decades."

Yesterday's story:
Hopeful home sellers sweeten the bait for buyers
Date: Aug. 11, 1990
"Orange County homeowners haven't taken to riding hippos or elephants but, like some used-car dealers, they might gladly saddle up if they thought it would help sell their houses.

"This summer, with homes in some parts of the county staying on the market longer than at any time since the early 1980s, sellers are turning on charm and creativity to move their homes." ...

The connection: Builders aren't the only ones who are desperate. Sellers are, too.

Today's story: Foreigners love U.S. real estate
Date: Jan. 28, 2008
"Many Americans are anxious about the real estate market. But foreign investors see U.S. apartments, hotels, shopping centers, warehouses and offices as good investments, according to a new survey."

Yesterday's story: Europeans prefer Southern California
Date: June 14, 1990
"California is the No. 1 state for real estate-related activities, according to executives of European firms in the United States. Los Angeles is the No. 1 city, they said."

The connection: The foreigners are coming to bail us all out of our real estate problems!

Today's story: Report Reveals 8 Signs of a Real Estate Recovery
Date: Jan. 22, 2008
"Encouraging signs that a meaningful recovery in the overall U.S. housing market could begin later this year are found in HouseHunt’s fourth quarter, 2007, “Current Market Reports” survey of member-agents and in year-end statistical data compiled by the National Association of Realtors (NAR)."

Yesterday's story: Housing report hints at end of OC slump
Date: March 28, 1991
"The county's new-home market caught fire during the first 2 1/2 months of this year, as sales shot up while inventory went down.

"If both trends continue, real estate analysts said the county's housing slump could be over by the end of this year."

The connection: It's never too early to call a bottom, right? By the way, the bottom of the last slump didn't come until about 1995 - four years after this story was published.

Today's story: Credit crunch really starts to hit home
Date: Aug. 18, 2007
"As more lenders collapse, the skittish survivors are continually raising their rates and changing the rules for getting a loan as they scramble to stay alive.

"The upheaval has made it nearly impossible to secure financing for scores of borrowers who would have easily qualified for mortgages just a few months ago, creating a lending drought likely to deepen the housing slump."

Yesterday's story: Credit crunch now hitting homebuyers
Date: March 26, 1991
"The 'credit crunch,' long decried by real- estate developers, is now moving toward homebuyers, threatening to disrupt the economy.

"...underwriting standards are tightening steadily and mortgage- interest rates are rising relative to other rates, Jolson wrote in a recent report."

The connection: You thought this summer's credit crunch was a brand new phenomenon? Think again.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Entertaining take on the parallels between today and the last slump! I feel for the home builders, a little bit, because even though the US has been successful at moderating the economic cycle over the last 20 years or so (http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/28/what-do-you-mean-by-the-r-word-a-guest-post/),
homebuilders always take the boom-bust cycle and multiply the peak by three.

morekaos said...

thanks so much for compiling this stuff. I agree 100% this is deja-vu all over again

Larry Roberts said...

That is great work. I am going to add a link to tomorrow's post to see if I can drive some more traffic your way.

Anonymous said...

Well done!

Everything old is new again.

Anonymous said...

Excellent post! Just like your previous one of comparing the OC Register's 2006 & 2007 predictions, this gives us a great insight into other information.