Wednesday, December 19, 2007

For you visual types...

Here is how the Orange County median single family detached home price has changed over the years, as reported by the Calif. Assocation of Realtors (CAR). Some things on this chart:

  • Minimum value is $129,641 in 1982. Max (peak) value is $721,190 in February 2007. The rest of the data points are each October's median price - October 2007 is the last month we currently have CAR data for.

  • The other two points labeled on the chart ($241,708 and $209,400) are the peak and trough of the last downturn. However, these are not the absolute peak and trough - just the highest October median and lowest October median during that period.

  • The median increased nominally by 61.5% between 1982 and 1995 - that's around a 3.8% average increase each year. It then proceeded to appreciate by 72.0% between 1995 and 2001, and then by another 87.1% between 2001 and October 2007. To arrive at the 2007 median, the 1995 median would have had to increase by an average of about 10.2% each year.

  • CAR's latest reported median (October) was $673,770 - exactly the same as the September one.
The second chart is mostly for my amusement, since it's of the "what if" variety (click on it to enlarge):
This graph speculates what the median would be now if it had increased by:
  • 4% every year since 1982 (pink). If this had happened, the median home price would now be $345,602.

  • 5% each year (yellow). The median would now be $439,010.

  • 6% each year (cyan). If this had happened, the October 2007 median would be $556,402.
Notice the 90s downturn took the actual median value below all three of these projected median value lines - the actual median did not catch back up with the 3% line until October 1997. The recorded median then proceeded to surpass the 6% yearly appreciation line in October 2002. It kept shooting up after that.

Feel free to use these charts for your own purposes - just cite this Web site as the source, please.

1 comments:

Deborah said...

Those graphs suggest to me that to reach fair value means that prices still have another 40% to drop.