Interesting post over at Jon Lansner's OC Register real estate blog today that outlines which county areas have the highest rate of "distressed" properties for sale - meaning foreclosures and short sales listed as up for sale. For the complete list, follow this link.
The top two - Santa Ana and Anaheim - are not surprising at all. These are lower-income areas where subprime lending ran especially rampant. Considering how far prices detatched from income fundamentals, it's not surprising how property values have fallen. But I was surprised at how many of the other areas near the top of the list are in South County.
Here is how South County areas rank (out of 40 communities in OC), and their percentage of distressed inventory:
3rd - RSM (31.8% of inventory is distressed)
4th - Lake Forest (29.8%)
5th - Laguna Hills (25.4%)
6th - Foothill Ranch (23.2%)
8th - Aliso Viejo (22.6%)
9th - San Juan Cap. (21.7%)
11th - Mission Viejo (19.4%)
12th - Ladera Ranch (19.2%)
13th - Talega (18.3%)
16th - Laguna Niguel (17.1%)
30th - San Clemente (9.2%)
31st - Coto de Caza (8.5%)
32nd - Dove Canyon (8.2%)
33rd - Dana Point (4.9%)
37th - Laguna Beach (2.1%)
40th - Laguna Woods (0.5%)
All OC total - 17.5%
Some notes about the data:
*This data shows 6 of the 10 worst-hit local areas in terms of distressed properties are in South County. Also, South County is also home to 9 of the 15 worst areas. This helps prove our assumption that the market is worse in South County than some realize.
*One would assume the distressed properties in RSM are skewed heavily toward the bottom end of the price scale (think condos), since nearby Coto and Dove Canyon are not seeing nearly the amount of problems.
*It is not surprising that some of the areas with the highest prices (Laguna Beach, Dana Point, Dove Canyon) are low on this list, since their prices have tended to be stickier than, say, Lake Forest. Other expensive areas like Newport Beach, Corona del Mar and Villa Park are also at the bottom. That is not to say, though, that you can't find short sales and foreclosures in these areas; they're just not as prevalent.
Monday, November 05, 2007
All's not well in South County
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3 comments:
CLASSIC picture!
I think part of the problem (aside from the sub-prime lending issues) is that once you have one foreclosure or short-sale or just a plain old sale at a rock bottom price, it messes up all the comp’s in the area. One low price sets the new standard that everyone has to come down to. No wonder owners are getting turned upside down in equity and suffering from foreclosures and short sales.
I thought communities in prime areas like Dove Canyon, Laguna Beach and Dana Point were immune! I'm glad to see that they made the list. Subprime is getting all the news but there's problems with Jumbos coming down that pike and that's what a lot of the people in these higher end communities used to buy. These higher end communities will never be like RSM and Aliso Viejo, but it will (and is) happening there, too!
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