Comp killer

Three sellers on Tortuga Cay in Aliso Viejo, Calif. are all playing nice and fair with each other by setting fairly similar asking prices in terms of square footage. Then there's the fourth property, a short sale, with the possibility to shake up the neighborhood. First, the three similar ones:

32 Tortuga Cay
Size: 2 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,436 sq ft (built in 1989)
Asking price: $519,900
Asking price/ sq ft: $362
Days on Redfin: 15


78 Tortuga Cay
Size: 3 beds, 3 baths, 1,602 sq ft (built in 1994)
Asking price: $559,000
Asking price/sq ft: $349
Days on Redfin: 38

33 Tortuga Cay
Size: 3 beds, 3 baths, 1,602 sq ft (built in 1990)
Asking price: $589,500
Asking price/ sq ft: $368
Days on Redfin: 23

Bottom line...the 33 Tortuga Cay property is overpriced. These sellers paid $537,500 in May, 2005 and are wishing for someone to materialize in order to bail them out. One noticeable difference between 33 and 78 Tortuga Cay is that 33 has a driveway, but is it really worth that much extra?

By the way, 78 Tortuga Cay sold for $325,000 in 2002, so you would suspect then that the sellers of that property should have some more wiggle room to lower the price accordingly. No price reductions on either of these properties yet.

You could also estimate that the value of a third bedroom would be about $39,000, by comparing the two-bedroom property's price to that of the cheaper three bedroom.

Then, there's 6 Tortuga Cay. I'm going to say it: There goes the neighborhood.

Size: 2 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,602 sq ft (built in 1992)
MLS: F1724911 (38 days on Redfin)
Asking price: $435,000
Asking price/sq ft: $272
Purchase price: $438,000
Purchase date: 3/10/2004
Other sales history: 05/16/2: $260,000
06/01/1998: $175,000
10/20/1994: $157,000
ZipRealty price tracker:Price Reduced: 08/05/07 -- $495,000 to $435,000
From listing: Shortsale subject to bank approval. Spacious floorplan, full driveway, large rear patio. $20,000 price reduction for fast sale. Please verify building sq feet. The building sqfeet on the listing is according assesor.
Good approach by these sellers: They want to unload this property right now, and set the price accordingly. Considering the property is $84,900 less than the competitor at 32 Tortuga Cay (a property that is supposedly 166 sq ft smaller), we would venture to say this one has a fighting chance of selling...assuming a buyer can qualify for and attain financing, and the lender approves the sale.

The loss at this point would be $29,100 assuming 6 percent in selling costs, but wouldn't it be better for these sellers to eject now than let this sit on the market for months and months?