Thursday, May 31, 2007

Have we hit bottom?

That's a question posed today in an article on MSN.com with the headline: Home prices still rising, barely.

Here's some paragraphs from the story that respond to the question of whether or not we're poised for a rebound any time soon:

"There's no sign of any turnaround at this point," said Maureen Maitland, an official with S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.

In hardest-hit markets, though, salespeople say buyers are wading back in. In the high-end, historic East Side near Brown University in Providence, R.I., agent Chris Healy said, "Activity is up right now, although prices have been in a decline for a couple of years."

Eric Belsky, the executive director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies, agreed, saying many buyers are waiting to see how much further prices will fall.

Reno, Nev., agent Tony Lyerly agreed. "We have ZIP codes that are doing well, and others that are not, but if you blend it into a citywide statistic, you see a (misleading) slowdown."

He reports selling four houses last month, ranging in price from $350,000 to $545,000 -- a bargain considering last year's prices were 15% to 18% higher.


There are also some interesting tips for potential buyers laid out in the story from an assistant real estate professor in Wisconsin. Here are a couple of the highlights, with my comments in bold:

  • Don't buy a condo right now. Because of an oversupply in many regions, prices may keep dropping for some time. (Good thing in Orange County there are a bunch of high-rise condo projects on the way)
  • Should you remodel? That depends on your motive. Upgrading in order to stay in a house 10 more years makes sense in today's market, Davis says. But remodeling to turn the house for a bigger profit may not be good strategy at the moment. (Have I completely lost my mind, or does that part about turning around and selling a house "for a bigger profit" sound suspiciously like flipping to you? That's what I thought)
  • If you want to buy because you hope the price will increase and create wealth for you, hold off. Wait until values stop dropping. (What, 20 percent appreciation isn't written into the Constitution? Double-check that 26th amendment for me just to make sure)
  • If you are happy renting and don't need to own, patience is a virtue right now. (Excuse me while I call my landlord to renew my lease)
  • If your motive is not financial but to put down roots, sink your teeth into a renovation project or acquire room for a growing family, Davis advises buying an inexpensive home where, if prices drop, you've won't lose much. (As soon as I find an inexpensive house/condo here in Orange County that is larger than 800 square feet, I'll let you know)

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